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Implied probability

Implied probability is the chance a price represents: 1 divided by the decimal odds. It includes the margin, so a market’s prices add up to more than 100%.

Example

2.50 implies 40%. A match at 2.40, 3.50 and 2.90 implies 41.7%, 28.6% and 34.5%: 104.7% in total.

Go further

Implied probability in one minuteThe full explainer, on the blogImplied probability calculatorThe chance each price implies, the bookmaker’s margin and the fair odds without it.

Related terms

Bookmaker margin (overround)A bookmaker’s margin, or overround, is how far a market’s implied probabilities add up past 100%. It is the built-in edge the bookmaker holds over the bettor.Decimal oddsDecimal odds are the total return for each unit staked, the stake included. 2.50 pays 2.50 for every 1, so a stake of 10 returns 25, a profit of 15.Expected value (EV)Expected value is what a bet makes on average if placed many times: stake × (probability × decimal odds − 1). A positive EV means the odds beat the chance.