Baseball betting research that starts with the starting pitcher.

BAI8 reads the starters, the bullpens, the lineups and the park, then sets our chance of each side next to the bookmaker’s price. When the chance beats the price, you see it.

See how it works

A positive edge is an estimate, not a promise. 18+, bet lawfully where you are.

Tampa Bay Rays v New York YankeesALDS · Game 1 · Sat 10 Oct
Beats fair · value
Our chance58%Tampa Bay Rays
FanDuel asks1.87implies 53.5%
Edge+4.5 pointsabove the price
58%Tampa Bay Rays
42%New York Yankees
fair 1.72fair 2.38

We make Tampa Bay Rays 58%, and the 1.87 on offer implies 53.5%. The 4.5‑point gap is the edge.

A worked example: our chance of each side, against the price.

Every badge here is the real one.

Today’s calls, already researched.

Real calls our research agents published this week. Open any of them to set it against your own bookmakers’ prices, with every source behind it.

Find the bets the price gets wrong, then see if you were right.

Where our chance beats the bookmaker’s price, the gap is your edge, counted in points: 52% against 47% is 5 points.

BAI8Example data

Desk

Our research calls, the most likely first.

Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White SoxMLB · Run line
Our chance66%Chicago White Sox +1.5
Fair odds1.53what our chance is worth

We make Chicago White Sox +1.5 66%, so fair odds are 1.53. The app sets that against the prices at your own bookmakers and shows the edge.

Milwaukee Brewers v San Diego PadresMLB · Match result
Our chance62%Milwaukee Brewers
Fair odds1.61what our chance is worth
62%Milwaukee Brewers
38%San Diego Padres
fair 1.61fair 2.63

We make Milwaukee Brewers 62%, so fair odds are 1.61. The app sets that against the prices at your own bookmakers and shows the edge.

Tampa Bay Rays v New York YankeesMLB · Match result
Our chance58%Tampa Bay Rays
Fair odds1.72what our chance is worth
58%Tampa Bay Rays
42%New York Yankees
fair 1.72fair 2.38

We make Tampa Bay Rays 58%, so fair odds are 1.72. The app sets that against the prices at your own bookmakers and shows the edge.

Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia PhilliesMLB · Total runs
Our chance56%Under 7.5
Fair odds1.80what our chance is worth

We make Under 7.5 56%, so fair odds are 1.80. The app sets that against the prices at your own bookmakers and shows the edge.

Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White SoxMLB · First 5 innings moneyline
Our chance55%Cleveland Guardians
Fair odds1.82what our chance is worth
55%Cleveland Guardians
45%Chicago White Sox
fair 1.82fair 2.22

We make Cleveland Guardians 55%, so fair odds are 1.82. The app sets that against the prices at your own bookmakers and shows the edge.

Milwaukee Brewers v San Diego PadresMLB · Total runs
Our chance53%Over 7.5
Fair odds1.89what our chance is worth

We make Over 7.5 53%, so fair odds are 1.89. The app sets that against the prices at your own bookmakers and shows the edge.

Tampa Bay Rays v New York YankeesALDS · Game 1 · Sat 10 Oct · Assessed from 13 research passes
The chance of each result
58%Tampa Bay Rays
42%New York Yankees
fair 1.72fair 2.38
4 priced outcomes · 4 assessed · 0 with the book’s price only
SelectionMarketPriceBookAssessed vs bookEdge
Tampa Bay RaysMatch resultfair 1.72 · implies 53.5% · edge +4.5 pointsMatch result1.87FanDuel58.0%53.5%+4.5 pts
Under 7.5Total runs · line 7.5fair 1.79 · implies 51.3% · edge +4.7 pointsTotal runs1.95DraftKings56.0%51.3%+4.7 pts
Tampa Bay RaysFirst 5 innings moneylinefair 1.82 · implies 51.3% · edge +3.7 pointsFirst 5 innings moneyline1.95BetMGM55.0%51.3%+3.7 pts
New York YankeesMatch resultfair 2.38 · implies 47.6% · edge −5.6 pointsMatch result2.10Pinnacle42.0%47.6%−5.6 pts

Your record

Every bet you keep is settled from the official result. The misses stay in.

Profit on staked bets+US$7.00
Staked bets won3 of 5
Calls that landed4 of 6
BetWhat we saidStakeResult
Tampa Bay Rays · Match resultOn paper · Tampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees · FanDuel 1.87assessed 58.0% · fair 1.72 · implies 53.5% · +4.5 points against the book
assessed 58.0% · fair 1.72starts in 1d 16h · edge +4.5 points
US$10.00US$18.70open
Chicago White Sox +1.5 · Run lineWatching · Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · BetMGM 1.65assessed 65.0% · fair 1.54 · implies 60.6% · +4.4 points against the book
assessed 65.0% · fair 1.54won · 30 Sept
no stakenot stakedcalled it
Under 7.5 · Total runsOn paper · Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · DraftKings 1.95assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80 · implies 51.3% · +4.2 points against the book
assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80won · 30 Sept
US$10.00+US$9.50called it
San Diego Padres · Match resultReal · San Diego Padres v Chicago Cubs · DraftKings 1.80assessed 60.0% · fair 1.67 · implies 55.6% · +4.4 points against the book
assessed 60.0% · fair 1.67won · 30 Sept
US$10.00+US$8.00won
Over 7.5 · Total runsOn paper · New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · FanDuel 1.95assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80 · implies 51.3% · +4.2 points against the book
assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80won · 30 Sept
US$10.00+US$9.50called it
Houston Astros · Match resultOn paper · Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · DraftKings 1.75assessed 61.0% · fair 1.64 · implies 57.1% · +3.9 points against the book
assessed 61.0% · fair 1.64lost · 29 Sept
US$10.00−US$10.00missed
Philadelphia Phillies · Match resultOn paper · Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Caesars 2.05assessed 52.0% · fair 1.92 · implies 48.8% · +3.2 points against the book
assessed 52.0% · fair 1.92lost · 29 Sept
US$10.00−US$10.00missed
Baseball

Baseball is decided by who pitches, and who they face.

The starter sets the floor; the lineup, the bullpen and the park decide the rest.

  1. The pitcher on the mound

    Who is confirmed to start, and his pitch mix against these batters.

  2. Runs from every base and out state

    Runs expected from each base and out state against this pitcher.

  3. Lefties, righties and the lineup

    Platoon splits show how today’s order is built and where it is thin.

  4. Bullpen, rest and travel

    Recent workload and travel, so a tired bullpen is priced as one.

  5. Park and weather

    Wind at Wrigley, a closed roof, and where contact tends to land.

  6. Set against the price

    No research pass sees the odds. The chance is set first, then put beside the price.

Baseball1 instrument

Runs expected from every base and out state against this pitcher.

Base-out expectancy

How do base and out states change run expectancy against this pitcher and batter mix?

Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers
Paul SkenesPittsburgh Pirates

No outs, bases loaded

Bases loaded. A walk forces in a run and a single usually scores two.

Run expectancy
2.31 runs
Scoring probability
91.7%

Runners on base down the side, outs across the top: bases empty at the top, loaded at the foot.

SourcesBase-out state researchthe assessment's own estimate, from its research passes

What the pitcher throws

The focus pitcher's mix: the share of his pitches that are each type.Share of all his pitches.

Four-seam fastball35%
Slider21%
Sinker17%
Splitter15%
Curveball12%
SourcesPitch-mix researchthe assessment's own estimate, from its research passes

Where the batter hits it

The focus batter's balls in play by direction.

Pulled124 balls in play, recent MLB seasons45%
Up the middle91 balls in play, recent MLB seasons33%
Opposite field61 balls in play, recent MLB seasons22%
SourcesBatted-ball researchthe assessment's own estimate, from its research passes
Validated 9 Jun 2026, 21:30

Instruments from a real report, with example data.

Try it live

Watch a match get researched.

The real app card, replaying a worked example: thirteen passes out, one chance back, every source attached.

Tampa Bay Rays v New York YankeesALDS · Game 1 · Sat 10 Oct · Tampa Bay Rays to win
market-derivedbacked out of a book's price, not our number
Assessed—not researched yet
Price1.87FanDuel
Edge—nothing to compare yet

The only figure so far is what the price implies: the bookmaker’s opinion, not ours. Nothing has been researched yet. Run the assessment for our own number.

Scan a bet

Bring the slip before you place it.

One screenshot is enough. We read every leg, price the whole bet and research the match behind it.

BAI8

Scan a bet

One screenshot, one bet.
Get the whole slip researched.

FanDuelSame game parlay3 selections
Tampa Bay Rays v New York YankeesALDS · Game 1 · Sat 3 Oct · 18:30 ET
  1. Rays to winMatch result1.87
  2. Under 7.5 runsTotal runs1.95
  3. No run in the 1st inningFirst inning runs1.83
Combined odds6.67
StakeUS$10.00Potential returnUS$66.70

Practise on paper first.

Record a bet, paper one, or just watch. Each is graded by the final result, misses included.

Recording a bet never places it. BAI8 never holds money or promises a result.

Keep this bet
US$18.70back on US$10.00 if it lands
Stake
FanDuel is showing this. Change it to whatever you were given.

Only Real counts toward your record. No money moves.

Profit on staked bets+US$7.00
Staked bets won3 of 5
Calls that landed, watched included4 of 6
BetWhat we saidStakeResult
Tampa Bay Rays · Match resultOn paper · Tampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees · FanDuel 1.87assessed 58.0% · fair 1.72 · implies 53.5% · +4.5 points against the book
assessed 58.0% · fair 1.72starts in 1d 16h · edge +4.5 points
US$10.00US$18.70open
Chicago White Sox +1.5 · Run lineWatching · Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · BetMGM 1.65assessed 65.0% · fair 1.54 · implies 60.6% · +4.4 points against the book
assessed 65.0% · fair 1.54won · 30 Sept
no stakenot stakedcalled it
Under 7.5 · Total runsOn paper · Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · DraftKings 1.95assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80 · implies 51.3% · +4.2 points against the book
assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80won · 30 Sept
US$10.00+US$9.50called it
San Diego Padres · Match resultReal · San Diego Padres v Chicago Cubs · DraftKings 1.80assessed 60.0% · fair 1.67 · implies 55.6% · +4.4 points against the book
assessed 60.0% · fair 1.67won · 30 Sept
US$10.00+US$8.00won
Over 7.5 · Total runsOn paper · New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · FanDuel 1.95assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80 · implies 51.3% · +4.2 points against the book
assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80won · 30 Sept
US$10.00+US$9.50called it
Houston Astros · Match resultOn paper · Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · DraftKings 1.75assessed 61.0% · fair 1.64 · implies 57.1% · +3.9 points against the book
assessed 61.0% · fair 1.64lost · 29 Sept
US$10.00−US$10.00missed
Philadelphia Phillies · Match resultOn paper · Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Caesars 2.05assessed 52.0% · fair 1.92 · implies 48.8% · +3.2 points against the book
assessed 52.0% · fair 1.92lost · 29 Sept
US$10.00−US$10.00missed

An example ledger, misses included. Your own starts empty.

Where do you actually make money?

Every bet you keep settles into your profit, your return on stake (ROI) and which sports pay.

An example account, losses included. Yours starts empty.

Priced at your bookmakers, wherever you bet.

72 bookmakers, each matched to the countries that license it. Pick yours.

Where do you bet?
United KingdomFractional odds
Tampa Bay Rays to winTampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees
87/100
Fair price
8/11
A £10 stake returns
£18.70
Language
English
We price 21 bookmakers licensed here
  • SBSky Bet
  • WHWilliam Hill
  • PPPaddy Power
  • BSBetfair Sportsbook
  • BETBetfairExchange
  • LADLadbrokes
  • CORCoral
  • BETBetfred
  • +13 more
  • +16 more

Also licensed here, not in our feed: bet365, Midnite and talkSPORT BET.

Leagues and tours, among them
MLB
Sports with their own instruments
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  • Basketball
  • MMA
  • Formula 1
  • American football
  • Baseball
  • Ice hockey
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  • Volleyball

Nothing hidden. Every number shows its working.

See what was read, which findings moved the chance and by how much.

How every number is made

  1. Research the match

    Thirteen passes, one question each: injuries, form, tactics, schedule, conditions, officials.

  2. Weigh every source

    A finding counts only as much as its sources earn. A stale or late source scores zero.

  3. Cap every finding

    No finding can move the number far, and a weakly sourced one moves it less.

  4. Price every outcome

    The findings become one chance per result, adding up to exactly 100%.

  5. Then check the price

    Only now does the price come in. Where our chance beats it, you see the gap.

What stands behind it

Built by engineers and AI agents. Every figure here is read from the code.

54 instruments draw each sport the way its fans read it. Prices are checked against 72 bookmakers. More than 7,000 automated tests run before every release.

Four rules every run follows

Whole, or refunded

A failed pass is retried deeper. A run that still cannot finish is never published, and your credit comes back.

The price stays out of it

No research pass sees the bookmaker’s odds, so our chance cannot copy theirs.

Refreshed before the start

Re-run four times before the start, at no cost to you.

At 72 hours, 24 hours, 6 hours and 75 minutes before the start.
Nothing hidden

Every finding shows what it did to the number and links to what it read.

Four places to ask. One shows the working.

One question, put to each: Tampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees. Example data.

How much work goes into the answer?

13 research agents read the match, often for over an hour.

11 findings from 536 pages read, 33 cited
  • Agent 1 Availability+0.4%from 2 findings
    Tampa Bay Rays’ high-leverage relievers are all available

    Their late-inning arms have not pitched in a game since the regular season ended, and every one of them is on the series roster. A full bullpen matters more in a short series than in any regular-season game.

    82% confidence
  • Agent 2 Form & underlying play+1.0%from 2 findings
    Tampa Bay Rays’ starter misses more bats

    His swing-and-miss rate sits clearly above the opposing starter’s, with fewer walks to go with it. A starter who takes the ball out of play takes luck out of the early innings.

    82% confidence
  • Agent 3 Tactics & style+0.6%from 3 findings
    A swing-and-miss lineup meets a strikeout pitcher

    Their hitters miss more often than Tampa Bay Rays’ and lean on the home run for their runs. Against a starter who limits both contact and hard contact, that approach has the least to work with.

    74% confidence
  • Agent 4 Matchup historyno change
    Close meetings that left no pattern

    Tight games, most of them settled in the late innings, are not a repeated mechanism that survives today’s rosters. The pass looked and kept nothing.

    62% confidence
  • Agent 5 Historical comparables+0.5%from 1 finding
    The starter gap outweighs home field

    In a ten-season sample of regular-season and postseason games, a large gap in starter quality moved results by more than home field did. The pattern holds in both halves of the sample.

    72% confidence
  • Agent 6 Rest, load & travel+0.2%from 2 findings
    New York Yankees’ late-inning arms have worked hard lately

    Their top relievers pitched in the Wild Card Series a few days ago. One off day restores some of that and not all of it.

    74% confidence
  • Agent 7 Weather & venueno change
    Nothing in the park or the forecast moves this

    The park’s run factors are already in both lineups’ home and road numbers, and nothing about the evening adds to them. The pass looked and found nothing, which is a result rather than an absence of one.

    66% confidence
  • Agent 8 Stakes & incentivesno change
    Game 1 matters equally to both

    The winner of a short series opener needs one fewer win from the games left, and both clubs are expected to use their bullpens aggressively. The pass found no incentive that separates the sides.

    66% confidence
  • Agent 9 Officiating & discipline+0.1%from 1 finding
    A slightly wide zone, applied as a small effect

    The assigned plate umpire’s called-strike rate on the edges runs a little above the league norm, which favours the starter with more strikeout stuff. A zone moves a handful of pitches a game, so it is applied as a small effect.

    60% confidence
  • Agent 10 Public information environmentno change
    The rosters came from the league’s own filing

    Both rosters were filed with the league and published before any reporter had them, so there is no doubt about the source. What they contain is counted once, under availability.

    84% confidence
  • Agent 11 Reporting consensusno change
    Confirmed by the roster and two independent outlets

    The filed roster and two national outlets each had the bullpen as fully available from their own sources. Independent confirmation raises how far the claim is trusted.

    82% confidence
  • Agent 12 Universal-pattern hypothesesno change
    A popular October claim, written up and given no weight

    A widely shared claim about Tampa Bay Rays’ record in postseason openers was written as a precise rule for the registry to test. Until it survives a holdout, it moves nothing.

    50% confidence
  • Agent 13 Adversarial review−0.4%from 2 findings
    A starter does not pitch the whole game

    Postseason starters are pulled earlier than in the regular season, and the late innings belong to the bullpens. Part of the starter edge is taken back.

    72% confidence
Tampa Bay Rays’ starter misses more bats+1.0%A swing-and-miss lineup meets a strikeout pitcher+0.6%The starter gap outweighs home field+0.5%
A tipster

A pick and a price. No working shown.

@tipster_proTampa Bay Rays to win at 1.87. Trust me.
ChatGPT or Claude

A fast answer from one prompt, in about 2 minutes.

I’d lean Tampa Bay Rays, but anything can happen in one match.
Doing it yourself

An evening of open tabs, then a hunch.

NewsStatsForumOdds9 more

Can you check where it came from?

Every source graded before it counts

Tampa Bay Rays’ starter misses more bats+1.0%A swing-and-miss lineup meets a strikeout pitcher+0.6%The starter gap outweighs home field+0.5%Tampa Bay Rays’ high-leverage relievers are all available+0.4%mlb.comPrimary0.92fangraphs.comEstablished0.78Report after the startRejected0.00Capped at ×0.75 to ×1.25No single finding can move what it touches further.
A tipster

Sources rarely named, so you cannot check them.

ChatGPT or Claude

Links to what its search found, none of them graded.

Doing it yourself

Whatever you happen to read, weighed by feel.

What are the actual chances?

A chance for every outcome, adding to 100%

Total runs: Under 7.556%fair 1.79First 5 innings moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays55%fair 1.82A fair price is 1 divided by the chance. Every market comes from the same picture of the match.
A tipster

A pick, with no chance put on it.

Tampa Bay Rays
ChatGPT or Claude

A view, maybe one number, never every outcome.

Doing it yourself

A hunch, not a probability.

Is the price worth taking?

Your price checked against 72 bookmakers

4 priced outcomes · 4 assessed · 0 with the book’s price only
SelectionMarketPriceBookAssessed vs bookEdge
Tampa Bay RaysMatch resultfair 1.72 · implies 53.5% · edge +4.5 pointsMatch result1.87FanDuel58.0%53.5%+4.5 pts
Under 7.5Total runs · line 7.5fair 1.79 · implies 51.3% · edge +4.7 pointsTotal runs1.95DraftKings56.0%51.3%+4.7 pts
Tampa Bay RaysFirst 5 innings moneylinefair 1.82 · implies 51.3% · edge +3.7 pointsFirst 5 innings moneyline1.95BetMGM55.0%51.3%+3.7 pts
New York YankeesMatch resultfair 2.38 · implies 47.6% · edge −5.6 pointsMatch result2.10Pinnacle42.0%47.6%−5.6 pts
+4.5 ptsBest price of 72 bookmakers
A tipster

One price at one bookmaker.

FanDuel1.87
ChatGPT or Claude

A quoted price, if its search finds one. It may be stale.

Doing it yourself

The two or three bookmakers you have open.

Is it still right by the start?

Re-checked 72 hours, 24 hours, 6 hours and 75 minutes before the start

A tipster

Posted once, never updated.

ChatGPT or Claude

True as of the moment you asked.

Doing it yourself

Whenever you remember to check.

Do new bets come to you?

New bets on the Desk every day

Tampa Bay Rays · Match resultTampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees · MLB · in 1d 16h · FanDuel
Beats fair
Assessed58.0%
Price1.87
Edge+4.5 pts
The assessment puts this above the price. Implies 53.5% · fair 1.72 · US$10.00 returns US$18.70 Our researchthe assessment's own estimate, from its research passes
Tampa Bay Rays · Match result1.87+4.5 ptsUnder 7.5 · Total runs1.95+4.2 ptsMilwaukee Brewers · Match result1.72+3.9 pts
A tipster

A tip when they get round to posting one.

ChatGPT or Claude

Nothing until you ask.

Doing it yourself

Your own shortlist, if you make one.

Can you see how the calls went?

Every call settled, misses included

Chicago White Sox +1.5 · Run lineWatching · Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · BetMGM 1.65assessed 65.0% · fair 1.54 · implies 60.6% · +4.4 points against the book
assessed 65.0% · fair 1.54won · 30 Sept
no stakenot stakedcalled it
Under 7.5 · Total runsOn paper · Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · DraftKings 1.95assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80 · implies 51.3% · +4.2 points against the book
assessed 55.5% · fair 1.80won · 30 Sept
US$10.00+US$9.50called it
San Diego Padres · Match resultReal · San Diego Padres v Chicago Cubs · DraftKings 1.80assessed 60.0% · fair 1.67 · implies 55.6% · +4.4 points against the book
assessed 60.0% · fair 1.67won · 30 Sept
US$10.00+US$8.00won
A tipster

The wins they choose to show.

WonWonWon
ChatGPT or Claude

Nothing settled, nothing scored.

Doing it yourself

Whatever you remember to write down.

ChatGPT and Claude are named for comparison only. Neither maker endorses BAI8.

One credit buys one researched match.

Thirteen research passes, a chance for every result. Re-reading your own is free.

What people ask before they start.

Still unsure? A person answers every email.

[email protected]

No. It holds no bookmaker account and never moves your money. Recording a bet as real only adds it to your own ledger.

A bet you record at the price you were shown, with a stake you choose and no money involved. It is graded by the result like any other. Watching records the call with no stake at all.

You upload a screenshot of a bet. BAI8 reads each leg and prices the whole bet, including legs that depend on each other. A leg it cannot read is marked unread, never guessed.

From the research, never from the bookmaker. An assessment builds each chance from the match’s own evidence, and every finding is capped and weighted by how credible its sources are. Only then is the price brought in to compare. Before an assessment, there is no number.

As long as the match needs, often more than an hour. Thirteen research passes read the match, and every source they find is graded for credibility and weighted by it. If a run cannot finish, the credit is refunded.

One assessment of one match. Opening one somebody else has already run costs a credit too, and re-reading one you hold is free. A new account gets five credits to try BAI8, valid for ten days. Every plan includes credits, and packs bought on their own never expire.

BAI8 compares prices at more than seventy bookmakers, each matched to the countries that license it, and shows them in your odds format, your currency and one of six languages. Use BAI8 only where betting is legal for you.

Your edge is the gap between our chance of a result and the chance the price implies. A positive edge is an estimate, not a promise. 18+, bet lawfully where you are. Betting loses money for most people who do it.