Burnley v Derby CountyChampionship · Sat 19 Sept, 16:00
Full time 1-1These were our chances before kick-off.
Burnley vs Derby County: result and prediction
Key stats
Who will win Burnley vs Derby County?
Championship, Sat 19 Sept, 16:00 (UK time). Full time: Burnley 1-1 Derby County.
Full time: Burnley 1-1 Derby County. The chances on this page are the ones we had before kick-off. These chances come from our football model, fitted on four seasons of results in this league and the divisions around it. The full AI research (team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market) runs in the app.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Our model expects Burnley to score 1.76 goals and Derby County 0.92. Every goals market below is summed from the same score grid, so they always agree with each other.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | 2.03 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.55 |
Correct score prediction
The five likeliest scores on our model. Even the likeliest single score lands only about one match in ten: that is why correct score odds are long.
| Burnley v Derby County | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 1–0 | 11.1% | 9.01 |
| 2–0 | 10.6% | 9.43 |
| 2–1 | 9.8% | 10.24 |
| 0–0 | 7.8% | 12.79 |
Double chance and draw no bet
What the same chances say about the other common markets, with the fair odds for each. A bookmaker offering more than the fair odds is offering value on our numbers.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley or draw | 81% | 1.23 |
| Derby County or draw | 44% | 2.28 |
| Burnley or Derby County (no draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| Burnley, draw no bet | 75% | 1.33 |
| Derby County, draw no bet | 25% | 4.03 |
League position
Burnley24of 24, 3 points from 7 games
Derby County22of 24, 4 points from 7 games
In the table, Burnley are in position 24 of 24 with 3 points, and Derby County in position 22 with 4.
What the full research adds
Win, draw and loss chances
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
The five likeliest scores
The side we back, at the best price across 70+ bookmakers
The edge in points, and every source the research read
The model reads results. In the app, our AI researches this match the way a professional would, thirteen passes over team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market, then compares the chance with the best price across more than seventy bookmakers and says where the value is.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
How Burnley vs Derby County played out
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiserForm
Head to head
Every meetingWins in 3 meetings since 2024
0Burnley
3Draws
0Derby County
Last meetings
BAI8 assessment
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Common questions
Who won Burnley vs Derby County?
Nobody: Burnley and Derby County drew 1–1 (Championship, Sat 19 Sept, 16:00 UK time).
When was Burnley vs Derby County played?
Championship, kick-off Sat 19 Sept, 16:00 UK time.
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