Millwall v Derby CountyChampionship · Sat 31 Oct, 15:00
Full time 4-1These were our chances before kick-off.
Millwall vs Derby County: result and prediction
Key stats
Who will win Millwall vs Derby County?
Championship, Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 (UK time). Full time: Millwall 4-1 Derby County.
Full time: Millwall 4-1 Derby County. The chances on this page are the ones we had before kick-off. Our numbers come from a fitted football model and a thirteen-pass research run on this fixture: team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market, each source graded before it can move the chance.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Our model expects Millwall to score 1.68 goals and Derby County 0.92. Every goals market below is summed from the same score grid, so they always agree with each other.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | 1.98 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.93 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.78 |
Correct score prediction
The five likeliest scores on our model. Even the likeliest single score lands only about one match in ten: that is why correct score odds are long.
| Millwall v Derby County | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 12.1% | 8.26 |
| 1–1 | 11.8% | 8.45 |
| 2–0 | 10.4% | 9.58 |
| 2–1 | 9.6% | 10.37 |
| 0–0 | 7.8% | 12.90 |
Double chance and draw no bet
What the same chances say about the other common markets, with the fair odds for each. A bookmaker offering more than the fair odds is offering value on our numbers.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall or draw | 75% | 1.34 |
| Derby County or draw | 52% | 1.92 |
| Millwall or Derby County (no draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| Millwall, draw no bet | 65% | 1.53 |
| Derby County, draw no bet | 35% | 2.89 |
League position
Millwall14of 24, 15 points from 12 games
Derby County23of 24, 7 points from 12 games
In the table, Millwall are in position 14 of 24 with 15 points, and Derby County in position 23 with 7.
What our call adds
Win, draw and loss chances
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
The five likeliest scores
The side we back, at the best price across 70+ bookmakers
The edge in points, and every source the research read
The chances above are free. In the app, the call on this match says which side we back, the best price we found across more than seventy bookmakers, the edge against that price in points, and every source the research read, so you can check it before you bet.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
How Millwall vs Derby County played out
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiserForm
Head to head
Every meetingWins in 15 meetings since 2017
8Millwall
4Draws
3Derby County
Last meetings
BAI8 assessment
Unlock it freeNext up: Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30. Get our call before the start: who to back, the price worth taking and why.
Free plan: 5 assessments a month. No card.
Common questions
Who won Millwall vs Derby County?
Millwall won 4–1 against Derby County (Championship, Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 UK time).
When was Millwall vs Derby County played?
Championship, kick-off Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 UK time.
More matches
Championship12:30MillwallQueens Park RangersChampionship12:30SouthamptonDerby County
ChampionshipFull timeLincoln City1Birmingham City3
ChampionshipFull timeNorwich City3Watford2
ChampionshipFull timeStoke City2Preston North End0ChampionshipFull timeBurnley0Portsmouth0
Women's Champions League17:45Leuven WomenHB Køge Women14.57X3.8421.60England EFL Trophy19:00BarnsleyOldham Athletic11.68X4.3323.60
