Excelsior v FC GroningenEredivisie · Sun 11 Oct, 16:45
Full time 1-5These were our chances before kick-off.
Excelsior vs FC Groningen: result and prediction
EredivisieSunday 11 Oct 2026Excelsior
- Yegoian 36' (pen)
1–5
Full timeHalf time 1–2FC Groningen
- Rente 7'
- van Gassel 38' (og)
- Van Bergen 64' (pen)
- Willumsson 67'
- Rente 90'+5'
Venue Stadion Woudestein
What happened
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiser20'
David Van Der WerffYellow card
36'
Irakli YegoianPenalty
38'
Stijn van GasselOwn goal
Half time1–2
64'
Thom Van BergenPenalty
67'
Brynjólfur WillumssonPelle Clement
80'
Tygo LandYellow card
90'+5'
Full time1–5
Key stats
Who will win Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Eredivisie, Sun 11 Oct, 16:45 (UK time). Full time: Excelsior 1-5 FC Groningen.
Full time: Excelsior 1-5 FC Groningen. The chances on this page are the ones we had before kick-off. These chances come from our football model, fitted on four seasons of results in this league and the divisions around it. The full AI research (team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market) runs in the app.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Our model expects Excelsior to score 1.41 goals and FC Groningen 1.53. Every goals market below is summed from the same score grid, so they always agree with each other.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.29 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.95 |
Correct score prediction
The five likeliest scores on our model. Even the likeliest single score lands only about one match in ten: that is why correct score odds are long.
| Excelsior v FC Groningen | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.9% | 7.75 |
| 1–2 | 8.7% | 11.44 |
| 2–1 | 8.0% | 12.47 |
| 0–0 | 6.8% | 14.73 |
| 0–1 | 6.6% | 15.06 |
Double chance and draw no bet
What the same chances say about the other common markets, with the fair odds for each. A bookmaker offering more than the fair odds is offering value on our numbers.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior or draw | 61% | 1.64 |
| FC Groningen or draw | 67% | 1.50 |
| Excelsior or FC Groningen (no draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| Excelsior, draw no bet | 46% | 2.17 |
| FC Groningen, draw no bet | 54% | 1.86 |
League position
Excelsior7of 18, 11 points from 7 games
FC Groningen9of 18, 11 points from 7 games
In the table, Excelsior are in position 7 of 18 with 11 points, and FC Groningen in position 9 with 11.
What the full research adds
Win, draw and loss chances
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
The five likeliest scores
The side we back, at the best price across 70+ bookmakers
The edge in points, and every source the research read
The model reads results. In the app, our AI researches this match the way a professional would, thirteen passes over team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market, then compares the chance with the best price across more than seventy bookmakers and says where the value is.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
How Excelsior vs FC Groningen played out
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiserLine-ups
Excelsior
Stijn van GasselGJan PlugCD-LCasper WidellCD-RSimon JanssenLBEric Da Silva MoreiraRBRick MeissenCMLennard HartjesLMIrakli YegoianRMDavid GardenFÁgúst ÞorsteinssonLFAymen SlitiRF
Substitutes
Substitutions
65'
Kasey BosOn for Simon Janssen
65'
Mario DominguezOn for David Garden
65'
Daniel Van VianenOn for Ágúst Þorsteinsson
65'
Valentin SulzbacherOn for Eric Da Silva Moreira
66'
Tygo LandOn for Jacob Ondrejka
72'
Márk CsingerOn for Hans Hateboer
81'
Alireza JahanbakhshOn for Aymen Sliti
84'
Nils EggensOn for Brynjólfur Willumsson
85'
Ryan MetuOn for Thom Van Bergen
85'
Oskar ZawadaOn for David Van Der Werff
Form
Head to head
Every meetingWins in 9 meetings since 2017
3Excelsior
0Draws
6FC Groningen
Last meetings
BAI8 assessment
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Common questions
Who won Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
FC Groningen won 5–1 away at Excelsior (Eredivisie, Sun 11 Oct, 16:45 UK time).
When was Excelsior vs FC Groningen played?
Eredivisie, kick-off Sun 11 Oct, 16:45 UK time.
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