Aston Villa v Manchester CityPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 12:30
Full time 2-1These were our chances before kick-off. Our call: Manchester City, lost.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: result and prediction
What happened
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiser6'
Nicolas Jackson1–0 · John McGinn
32'
Marc GuéhiYellow card
38'
Rayan CherkiYellow card
Half time1–0
52'
Erling Haaland1–1 · Iliman Ndiaye
54'
Johan ManzambiYellow card
55'
Matty CashYellow card
60'
Nicolas Jackson2–1 · Ibrahim Mbaye
74'
Elliot AndersonYellow card
76'
Ryan McAidooYellow card
83'
Brian MadjoYellow card
90'+5'
Emiliano BuendíaYellow card
Full time2–1
Key stats
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Premier League, Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 (UK time). Full time: Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City.
Full time: Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City. The chances on this page are the ones we had before kick-off. Our numbers come from a fitted football model and a thirteen-pass research run on this fixture: team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market, each source graded before it can move the chance.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Our model expects Aston Villa to score 1.16 goals and Manchester City 1.85. Every goals market below is summed from the same score grid, so they always agree with each other.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.37 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.82 |
Correct score prediction
The five likeliest scores on our model. Even the likeliest single score lands only about one match in ten: that is why correct score odds are long.
| Aston Villa v Manchester City | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 11.4% | 8.77 |
| 1–2 | 9.8% | 10.21 |
| 0–2 | 8.5% | 11.82 |
| 0–1 | 8.3% | 12.03 |
| 2–1 | 6.1% | 16.34 |
Double chance and draw no bet
What the same chances say about the other common markets, with the fair odds for each. A bookmaker offering more than the fair odds is offering value on our numbers.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa or draw | 43% | 2.31 |
| Manchester City or draw | 79% | 1.26 |
| Aston Villa or Manchester City (no draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| Aston Villa, draw no bet | 27% | 3.72 |
| Manchester City, draw no bet | 73% | 1.37 |
League position
Aston Villa12of 20, 8 points from 7 games
Manchester City1of 20, 21 points from 7 games
In the table, Aston Villa are in position 12 of 20 with 8 points, and Manchester City in position 1 with 21.
What our call adds
Win, draw and loss chances
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
The five likeliest scores
The side we back, at the best price across 70+ bookmakers
The edge in points, and every source the research read
The chances above are free. In the app, the call on this match says which side we back, the best price we found across more than seventy bookmakers, the edge against that price in points, and every source the research read, so you can check it before you bet. Read our written preview: Aston Villa v Man City preview: team news.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
How Aston Villa vs Manchester City played out
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiserLine-ups
Aston Villa
Zion SuzukiGPau TorresCD-LVictor LindelöfCD-RIan MaatsenLBMatty CashRBJohn McGinnAMJoão GomesLMBoubacar KamaraRMNicolas JacksonFJohan ManzambiAM-LAlyssonAM-R
Substitutes
Substitutions
45'
Rico LewisOn for Marc Guéhi
45'
Phil FodenOn for Rayan Cherki
59'
Ibrahim MbayeOn for Alysson
66'
Emiliano BuendíaOn for Johan Manzambi
66'
Ross BarkleyOn for John McGinn
69'
Ryan McAidooOn for Iliman Ndiaye
82'
Brian MadjoOn for Nicolas Jackson
82'
Leon GoretzkaOn for João Gomes
Form
Head to head
Every meetingWins in 15 meetings since 2019
5Aston Villa
1Draws
9Man City
Last meetings
BAI8 assessment
Unlock it freeNext up: Manchester City vs Fulham
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Common questions
Who won Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Aston Villa won 2–1 against Manchester City (Premier League, Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 UK time).
When was Aston Villa vs Manchester City played?
Premier League, kick-off Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 UK time.
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