Newcastle United v Aston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 17:30
Full time 0-1These were our chances before kick-off. Our call: Newcastle United, lost.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: result and prediction
What happened
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiser18'
JoelintonYellow card
18'
Sven BotmanYellow card
25'
João GomesYellow card
28'
AlyssonYellow card
36'
Johan Manzambi0–1 · João Gomes
Half time0–1
53'
Nico GonzálezYellow card
55'
Yoane WissaYellow card
78'
William OsulaYellow card
86'
Malick ThiawYellow card
Full time0–1
Key stats
Who will win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Premier League, Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 (UK time). Full time: Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa.
Full time: Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa. The chances on this page are the ones we had before kick-off. Our numbers come from a fitted football model and a thirteen-pass research run on this fixture: team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market, each source graded before it can move the chance.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Our model expects Newcastle United to score 1.69 goals and Aston Villa 1.44. Every goals market below is summed from the same score grid, so they always agree with each other.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.53 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.63 |
Correct score prediction
The five likeliest scores on our model. Even the likeliest single score lands only about one match in ten: that is why correct score odds are long.
| Newcastle United v Aston Villa | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 11.8% | 8.50 |
| 2–1 | 9.0% | 11.12 |
| 1–2 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
| 2–2 | 6.5% | 15.46 |
| 1–0 | 6.3% | 15.90 |
Double chance and draw no bet
What the same chances say about the other common markets, with the fair odds for each. A bookmaker offering more than the fair odds is offering value on our numbers.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United or draw | 63% | 1.58 |
| Aston Villa or draw | 61% | 1.64 |
| Newcastle United or Aston Villa (no draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| Newcastle United, draw no bet | 52% | 1.94 |
| Aston Villa, draw no bet | 48% | 2.06 |
League position
Newcastle United11of 20, 8 points from 6 games
Aston Villa17of 20, 5 points from 6 games
In the table, Newcastle United are in position 11 of 20 with 8 points, and Aston Villa in position 17 with 5.
What our call adds
Win, draw and loss chances
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
The five likeliest scores
The side we back, at the best price across 70+ bookmakers
The edge in points, and every source the research read
The chances above are free. In the app, the call on this match says which side we back, the best price we found across more than seventy bookmakers, the edge against that price in points, and every source the research read, so you can check it before you bet.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
How Newcastle United vs Aston Villa played out
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiserLine-ups
Newcastle United
Lukás HornícekGSven BotmanCD-LMalick ThiawCD-RLewis HallLBLewis MileyRBJoe WillockAMNico GonzálezLMJoelintonRMYoane WissaFHarvey BarnesAM-LMatias Fernandez-PardoAM-R
Substitutes
Substitutions
45'
John McGinnOn for Alysson
56'
Bazoumana TouréOn for Matias Fernandez-Pardo
56'
William OsulaOn for Joe Willock
72'
Leon GoretzkaOn for Emiliano Buendía
72'
Ross BarkleyOn for João Gomes
72'
Ibrahim MbayeOn for Johan Manzambi
77'
Pau TorresOn for Aaron Wan-Bissaka
90'
Dan BurnOn for Joelinton
Form
Head to head
Every meetingWins in 15 meetings since 2019
5Newcastle
3Draws
7Aston Villa
Last meetings
BAI8 assessment
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Common questions
Who won Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa won 1–0 away at Newcastle United (Premier League, Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 UK time).
When was Newcastle United vs Aston Villa played?
Premier League, kick-off Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 UK time.
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