Alverca v AroucaPrimeira Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 18:00
Full time 0-1These were our chances before kick-off. Our call: Alverca, lost.
Alverca vs Arouca: result and prediction
What happened
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiser6'
Steven BaseyaRed card
19'
José FontánYellow card
24'
Taichi Fukui0–1 · Javi Sánchez
Half time0–1
54'
Pedro SantosYellow card
71'
Lucas FigueiredoYellow card
90'+4'
André VidigalRed card
Full time0–1
Key stats
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
Primeira Liga, Sat 24 Oct, 18:00 (UK time). Full time: Alverca 0-1 Arouca.
Full time: Alverca 0-1 Arouca. The chances on this page are the ones we had before kick-off. Our numbers come from a fitted football model and a thirteen-pass research run on this fixture: team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market, each source graded before it can move the chance.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Our model expects Alverca to score 1.40 goals and Arouca 1.26. Every goals market below is summed from the same score grid, so they always agree with each other.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.61 |
Correct score prediction
The five likeliest scores on our model. Even the likeliest single score lands only about one match in ten: that is why correct score odds are long.
| Alverca v Arouca | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 11.6% | 8.59 |
| 1–0 | 10.5% | 9.56 |
| 0–1 | 9.6% | 10.47 |
| 2–1 | 8.6% | 11.61 |
| 1–2 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
Double chance and draw no bet
What the same chances say about the other common markets, with the fair odds for each. A bookmaker offering more than the fair odds is offering value on our numbers.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca or draw | 68% | 1.47 |
| Arouca or draw | 60% | 1.68 |
| Alverca or Arouca (no draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| Alverca, draw no bet | 56% | 1.79 |
| Arouca, draw no bet | 44% | 2.27 |
League position
Alverca8of 18, 11 points from 8 games
Arouca5of 18, 14 points from 8 games
In the table, Alverca are in position 8 of 18 with 11 points, and Arouca in position 5 with 14.
What our call adds
Win, draw and loss chances
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
The five likeliest scores
The side we back, at the best price across 70+ bookmakers
The edge in points, and every source the research read
The chances above are free. In the app, the call on this match says which side we back, the best price we found across more than seventy bookmakers, the edge against that price in points, and every source the research read, so you can check it before you bet.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
How Alverca vs Arouca played out
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiserLine-ups
Alverca
Matheus MendesGSergi GómezCDIsaac JamesCD-LSteven BaseyaCD-RDavy GuiCM-LRayan LucasCM-RChissumbaLMDiogo SpencerRMDawda CamaraFLucas FigueiredoCF-LChiquinhoCF-R
Substitutes
Substitutions
9'
Yahya BojangOn for Chissumba
45'
Ian LuccasOn for Rayan Lucas
61'
Mateo FloresOn for Pedro Santos
62'
Matheus FrançaOn for Dawda Camara
67'
Dylan NandínOn for Ivan Martínez
67'
Boris PopovicOn for José Fontán
75'
Nabili TouaiziOn for Lucas Figueiredo
75'
Zé RafaelOn for Davy Gui
79'
Lee Hyun-JuOn for Taichi Fukui
79'
Brian MansillaOn for Alfonso Trezza
Form
Head to head
Every meetingWins in 3 meetings since 2025
1Alverca
0Draws
2Arouca
Last meetings
BAI8 assessment
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Common questions
Who won Alverca vs Arouca?
Arouca won 1–0 away at Alverca (Primeira Liga, Sat 24 Oct, 18:00 UK time).
When was Alverca vs Arouca played?
Primeira Liga, kick-off Sat 24 Oct, 18:00 UK time.
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