Arouca v NacionalPrimeira Liga · Sun 1 Nov, 15:30
Full time 1-0These were our chances before kick-off.
Arouca vs Nacional: result and prediction
What happened
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiser64'
Tiago Esgaio1–0 · Näis Djouahra
74'
Matchoi DjolóYellow card
76'
Orest LebedenkoYellow card
78'
Danel DongmoYellow card
90'+4'
Pablo GozálbezYellow card
Full time1–0
Key stats
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
Primeira Liga, Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 (UK time). Full time: Arouca 1-0 Nacional.
Full time: Arouca 1-0 Nacional. The chances on this page are the ones we had before kick-off. These chances come from our football model, fitted on four seasons of results in this league and the divisions around it. The full AI research (team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market) runs in the app.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Our model expects Arouca to score 1.64 goals and Nacional 1.13. Every goals market below is summed from the same score grid, so they always agree with each other.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.30 |
Correct score prediction
The five likeliest scores on our model. Even the likeliest single score lands only about one match in ten: that is why correct score odds are long.
| Arouca v Nacional | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 11.3% | 8.87 |
| 1–1 | 10.6% | 9.47 |
| 2–1 | 9.5% | 10.50 |
| 2–0 | 8.4% | 11.90 |
| 0–1 | 8.1% | 12.35 |
Double chance and draw no bet
What the same chances say about the other common markets, with the fair odds for each. A bookmaker offering more than the fair odds is offering value on our numbers.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca or draw | 73% | 1.38 |
| Nacional or draw | 50% | 2.01 |
| Arouca or Nacional (no draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| Arouca, draw no bet | 65% | 1.54 |
| Nacional, draw no bet | 35% | 2.84 |
League position
Arouca5of 18, 17 points from 9 games
Nacional15of 18, 7 points from 9 games
In the table, Arouca are in position 5 of 18 with 17 points, and Nacional in position 15 with 7.
What the full research adds
Win, draw and loss chances
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
The five likeliest scores
The side we back, at the best price across 70+ bookmakers
The edge in points, and every source the research read
The model reads results. In the app, our AI researches this match the way a professional would, thirteen passes over team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market, then compares the chance with the best price across more than seventy bookmakers and says where the value is.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
How Arouca vs Nacional played out
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiserLine-ups
Substitutions
59'
Pablo GozálbezOn for Taichi Fukui
70'
Matchoi DjolóOn for Stavros Gavriel
70'
Danel DongmoOn for Chiheb Labidi
71'
Pablo RuanOn for Njoya Kader
71'
Dylan NandínOn for Ivan Martínez
75'
Lee Hyun-JuOn for Mateo Flores
75'
Brian MansillaOn for Alfonso Trezza
81'
Daniel JúniorOn for Miguel Baeza
81'
Allen ObandoOn for Song Min-Kyu
Form
Head to head
Every meetingWins in 5 meetings since 2024
5Arouca
0Draws
0Nacional
Last meetings
BAI8 assessment
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Common questions
Who won Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca won 1–0 against Nacional (Primeira Liga, Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 UK time).
When was Arouca vs Nacional played?
Primeira Liga, kick-off Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 UK time.
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