Nacional v AlvercaPrimeira Liga · Sat 12 Sept, 16:30
Full time 1-3These were our chances before kick-off.
Nacional vs Alverca: result and prediction
Key stats
Who will win Nacional vs Alverca?
Primeira Liga, Sat 12 Sept, 16:30 (UK time). Full time: Nacional 1-3 Alverca.
Full time: Nacional 1-3 Alverca. The chances on this page are the ones we had before kick-off. These chances come from our football model, fitted on four seasons of results in this league and the divisions around it. The full AI research (team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market) runs in the app.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
Our model expects Nacional to score 1.48 goals and Alverca 1.14. Every goals market below is summed from the same score grid, so they always agree with each other.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.95 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 3.73 |
Correct score prediction
The five likeliest scores on our model. Even the likeliest single score lands only about one match in ten: that is why correct score odds are long.
| Nacional v Alverca | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 11.7% | 8.58 |
| 1–1 | 11.4% | 8.76 |
| 0–1 | 9.2% | 10.87 |
| 2–1 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 2–0 | 8.0% | 12.56 |
Double chance and draw no bet
What the same chances say about the other common markets, with the fair odds for each. A bookmaker offering more than the fair odds is offering value on our numbers.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional or draw | 70% | 1.43 |
| Alverca or draw | 54% | 1.85 |
| Nacional or Alverca (no draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| Nacional, draw no bet | 60% | 1.66 |
| Alverca, draw no bet | 40% | 2.52 |
League position
Nacional11of 18, 4 points from 5 games
Alverca16of 18, 2 points from 5 games
In the table, Nacional are in position 11 of 18 with 4 points, and Alverca in position 16 with 2.
What the full research adds
Win, draw and loss chances
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
The five likeliest scores
The side we back, at the best price across 70+ bookmakers
The edge in points, and every source the research read
The model reads results. In the app, our AI researches this match the way a professional would, thirteen passes over team news, injuries, form, schedule and the market, then compares the chance with the best price across more than seventy bookmakers and says where the value is.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
How Nacional vs Alverca played out
officialpublished by the governing body or event organiserForm
Head to head
Every meetingWins in 3 meetings since 2025
1Nacional
0Draws
2Alverca
Last meetings
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Common questions
Who won Nacional vs Alverca?
Alverca won 3–1 away at Nacional (Primeira Liga, Sat 12 Sept, 16:30 UK time).
When was Nacional vs Alverca played?
Primeira Liga, kick-off Sat 12 Sept, 16:30 UK time.
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