Cody Chovancek v Su Young You prediction
Chovancek meets Su Young You on Saturday. We make You 51.9% with fair 1.93 and saw 2.16 at Bally Bet, a 5.6 point edge. Numbers and limits.
We make Su Young You a narrow favourite against Cody Chovancek: You 51.9%, Chovancek 47.1%, draw 1.0%. The best price we saw on You was 2.16 at Bally Bet against our fair price of 1.93. That is a 5.6 point positive edge on the Desk card. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
The Desk commence time is 21:10 UTC on 17 October 2026.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Chovancek | 47.1% | 2.12 | ||
| Draw | 1.0% | 100.0 | ||
| Su Young You | 51.9% | 1.93 | 2.16, Bally Bet | +5.6 pts |
The 2.16 was quoted at 11:11 UTC on 15 October. At that price the market implied about 46.3% for You, roughly six points under our chance. Thin MMA markets move on weigh-in news and late replacements; how we treat a modest edge is in what a near-zero edge is telling you.
What moved the number
- A coin-flip fight on our numbers. 51.9% is not a strong favourite. Most of the edge is price, not dominance.
- Liquidity. Bally Bet at 2.16 may not be the price you can clear in size. Exchange or sharper books can sit shorter.
- Draw residual. The 1.0% is small but real enough that a You pick is not a pure two-way.
What could make us wrong
MMA cards this deep on a board often have sparse public film and volatile weigh-cut stories. If You misses weight or a late replacement lands, the 51.9% is stale. If 2.16 is gone, the edge was never available to you.
What this does not tell you
It does not say You wins. It does not price method of victory or round props. It is match result only on one Desk card.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour for Cody Chovancek v Su Young You?
Su Young You. We give You 51.9%, Chovancek 47.1% and a draw 1.0%.
Is Su Young You good value against Chovancek?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw. Best quote 2.16 at Bally Bet against fair 1.93 is a 5.6 point edge. It is an estimate, not a promise.
When is Cody Chovancek v Su Young You?
Friday night into Saturday: commence time 21:10 UTC on 17 October 2026 on the MMA desk card.
Why is there a draw chance in MMA?
Rare majority draws and no-contests sit in the residual. We still show the 1.0% so the three-way split is honest.