Italy vs France prediction and team news

How it settled

Italy 3–1 France, full time on Thursday 12 November. The call published before kick-off was France (match result) at 1.9 with Betfred (UK), and it lost. It stays on BAI8's public record with every other settled call, wins and losses alike.

The research said Italy had to make the game while France could live with a draw, and we underrated how much Italy had in them: they did not just make the game, they scored three.

Our call before the match

Written on 10 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

Italy vs France on Thursday is the game France can afford to draw and Italy cannot: France lead League A Group 1 by three points, Kylian Mbappé is back to captain them, and a point in Milan keeps them in the top two. Italy need a win to stay in the race for first, and they go into it without Roma defender Gianluca Mancini or Nicolò Zaniolo. France have lost Marcus Thuram since the squad was named.

BAI8 has researched this match in depth: open the Italy vs France match page to see the call. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the table, the form and the team news any price has to account for.

Kick-off is 20:45 in Italy (19:45 UTC) on Thursday 12 November at San Siro (Stadio Giuseppe Meazza) in Milan, matchday 5 of League A Group 1, per UEFA's match data. The FIGC says the stadium is heading for a sell-out. More Nations League predictions.

What is at stake

	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
France	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
Italy	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
Belgium	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
Turkey	4	0	0	4	2	11	0

Table per UEFA, before matchday 5. The top two reach the quarter-finals next March.

France win the group with a win in Milan: they would be on 13 with one game left, and nobody else can get past 12. A draw puts them on 11, and they would still be sure of a top-two place, because Italy and Belgium meet in Brussels on Sunday 15 November and cannot both finish above them.

Italy are second on 7 with Belgium a point behind, and those two play each other on Sunday. Eurosport Italia's reading is that Italy need to win both games to dream of first place. A defeat on Thursday would leave second place to be settled in Brussels.

So France can live with a draw and Italy cannot. That asymmetry shapes the match more than any team sheet.

Form

France won 1–0 in Turkey in Zinedine Zidane's first game in charge on 25 September, then won 1–0 in Brussels, drew 1–1 with Italy and beat Belgium 4–1 at home, per AFP and UEFA's standings. Seven goals for and two against. Mbappé scored the winner in Turkey and missed the next three games with a knee injury; France took seven points from nine without him.

Italy lost 2–0 at home to Belgium, then won 4–1 in Turkey, drew 1–1 with France and beat Turkey 3–1. Eight goals for, five against, per UEFA's standings. The first meeting between these sides in this group ended level.

Across all competitions, including friendlies, Italy and France have met 42 times, per Eurosport Italia.

Team news

Italy (per the FIGC):

• Gianluca Mancini, Roma's centre-back, withdrew injured and stays with his club.
• Matteo Palma, the Udinese defender born in 2008, has his first senior call-up after FIFA approved his change of sporting nationality.
• Federico Gatti of Juventus was added on the eve of the camp, his first call-up in more than seven months.
• Nicolò Zaniolo pulled out for personal reasons on 10 November and misses both France and Belgium, per Football Italia. Alphadjo Cisse and Mattia Liberali, both with first senior call-ups, are with the squad.

Eurosport Italia's probable XI, updated on the evening of 10 November: Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Doumbia, Tonali, Barella; Sebastiano Esposito, Francesco Pio Esposito, Cissé.

France (per AFP and Yahoo Sports):

• Kylian Mbappé is back and captains the side. He has scored eight times in seven games for Real Madrid since his knee injury.
• Ousmane Dembélé, Maghnes Akliouche and Esteban Lepaul are not in the squad. Pablo Pagis of Paris FC has a first call-up.
• Marcus Thuram, recalled in Lepaul's place, withdrew on 10 November with a hamstring problem from Inter's win over Como and has gone back to his club. Éli Junior Kroupi of Bournemouth replaces him, his first senior call-up.
• Aurélien Tchouaméni returns in midfield in place of Manu Koné; Leny Yoro and Malo Gusto come in for Jules Koundé and Maxence Lacroix.

Eurosport Italia's probable France XI: Maignan; Zaïre-Emery, Jacquet, Upamecano, Truffert; Cherki, Da Cunha, Rabiot; Olise, Mbappé, Doué.

How the match is likely to go

The table hands Italy the job of making the game. France can live with a draw, and under Zidane they have conceded two goals in four games. That points to Italy having to commit players forward and France having Mbappé, Olise and Doué to run into the space behind. The first meeting, in Saint-Denis, was 1–1 with Mbappé missing; this time he is in the squad.

When one side is happy with a point, the draw usually carries more weight than the form table suggests. How that works is in what the draw is worth in football odds, and the wider effect of group tables on prices is in what a Nations League table does to the price.

What could make us wrong

Squads move in an international week: Mancini, Gatti, Zaniolo and Thuram have changed the two lists since they were named. Probable line-ups are guesses until the hour before kick-off. And four group games is a small sample: France's 4–1 and Italy's two wins over Turkey say as much about the opponents as about either side.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It has no BAI8 chance, fair price or edge: those are on the match page, not here. It does not know the confirmed line-ups or any news after the morning of 11 November.