Football
Football betting predictions, match previews and results, across the major leagues and cups.
8 articles
Football
8Football1 minWhat we called last week, and how it finishedSeven published assessments, settled in full including the four that lost. A record you can only see when it is good is not a record at all.Football2 minWhat a red card does to a live priceA sending off is worth far more in the eightieth minute than in the tenth, and the market's instant reaction is often the wrong size in a predictable direction.Football2 minHow to read a football match odds marketA 1X2 market is three prices that add up to more than certainty. How to strip the margin out, what is left, and where the market is usually right.Football1 minThe derby preview, form, injuries, the lineLocal rivalries are the fixture where recent form matters least and the market knows it. What actually moves a derby price, and what only looks like it does.Football2 minPremier League weekend, three widest gapsTen fixtures assessed, three where our number and the market disagree by more than the margin explains. The reasoning is published with each one.Football2 minHow to bet on football with a modelA model gives you a number. Turning that into a decision needs three more things, and most people who lose money have the first and none of the rest.Football1 minWhy a both teams to score price movesBTTS looks like a mood about attacking football. It is two scoring rates multiplied, which is why it moves when nothing exciting happened.Football1 minAsian handicaps without the jargonA quarter-ball handicap is two bets at half stakes. Once you see that, the whole notation stops being cryptic and starts being useful.