Levante v Sevilla prediction and odds
Levante v Sevilla on Monday: we make Sevilla 37.6% and saw 2.76 at Betfair, a 1.3 point gap. Our chances, who is missing and why the edge is thin.
On this page
We lean Sevilla at the Ciutat de Valencia, but only just: Sevilla 37.6%, Levante 34.4%, the draw 28.0%. The best price we saw on Sevilla was 2.76 at Betfair against our fair price of 2.66. That is a 1.3 point gap, the thinnest on our Desk today. It is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is Monday 12 October at 19:00 UTC.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 34.4% | 2.90 | ||
| Draw | 28.0% | 3.57 | ||
| Sevilla | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.76, Betfair | +1.3 pts |
At 2.76 the market implied 36.2% for Sevilla. A gap that small is inside the error of any football model, ours included. What a small positive number does and does not mean is in what a positive edge actually means.
What the public evidence says
- Levante concede. SoccerNews counts 12 goals against in six league games, including 4–2 to Barcelona and 3–1 to Villarreal before the break.
- Levante are short in midfield and attack. Hugo Sotelo (knee) is out and Karl Etta Eyong (muscle) is a doubt at best, per SoccerNews and Derbista.
- Sevilla have their own gaps. Marcão is out with a thigh injury and Lucas Stassin is a doubt. Rubén Vargas and Kike Salas are back training, per SoccerNews.
What could make us wrong
Three outcomes this close means any of them can happen. If Stassin and Vargas miss out, Sevilla are thinner up front than our number assumes. A home crowd on a Monday night is not nothing.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Sevilla will win: on our numbers they do not about 62% of the time. A 1.3 point gap can vanish with one price move. Treat this card as close to a fair price, not a strong opinion.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 make favourites for Levante v Sevilla?
Sevilla, narrowly. We give them 37.6%, Levante 34.4% and the draw 28.0%.
What is the best price BAI8 saw on Sevilla?
2.76 at Betfair, quoted at 18:00 UTC on 9 October. Our fair price is 2.66, so the gap is only 1.3 points.
Who is out for Levante v Sevilla?
Levante are without Hugo Sotelo and Karl Etta Eyong; Sevilla without Marcão, with Lucas Stassin a doubt, per SoccerNews and Derbista.