Nice v Strasbourg prediction and odds
Nice v Strasbourg today: we make Strasbourg 37.7% and saw 3.07 at 1xBet, a 5.1 point gap over our fair price. Our chances, team news and the risks.
On this page
We make Strasbourg slight favourites in Nice: Strasbourg 37.7%, Nice 34.3%, the draw 28.0%. The best price we saw on Strasbourg was 3.07 at 1xBet against our fair price of 2.65. That is a 5.1 point gap, the widest football gap on our Desk for Sunday. It is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 13:00 UTC today (15:00 in France), Ligue 1 matchday 6.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 34.3% | 2.92 | ||
| Draw | 28.0% | 3.57 | ||
| Strasbourg | 37.7% | 2.65 | 3.07, 1xBet | +5.1 pts |
The 3.07 was quoted at 18:00 UTC on 10 October. At 3.07 the market implies 32.6% for Strasbourg; we have 37.7%. The gap between those two columns is the whole story of the card, and fair price vs best price on a BAI8 card shows the arithmetic.
What the public evidence says
- Nice cannot score. Sport.fr counts three goals in five league games, the lowest in Ligue 1, with only Amoura and Wahi on the scoresheet. They did beat Lille last time out for their first win.
- Nice are missing midfield and defence. Mendy, Abergel and Bombito are out injured. The centre-back Mandza, 17, has started every league game.
- Strasbourg lose their captain. L'Equipe reports Hugo Oliveira ruled out Ismael Doukoure, who has not trained since last week. Mitchell and Coulibaly should pair up, both just back from international duty (Mitchell with a knee scare, Coulibaly after illness).
- Strasbourg's attack is thinner too. Panichelli is out until 2027 and Godo is not ready yet.
What could make us wrong
A new centre-back pair is exactly the kind of change a model struggles to price. If Nice's first win was the start of something rather than a one-off, the home side are underrated here. The draw, at 28.0%, is the single most likely way for a Strasbourg backer to lose.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Strasbourg will win: on our numbers they fail to about 62% of the time. The price may also have moved since it was quoted yesterday evening, and team sheets an hour before kick-off can change the picture.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 make favourites for Nice v Strasbourg?
Strasbourg, narrowly. We give them 37.7%, Nice 34.3% and the draw 28.0%.
What is the best price BAI8 saw on Strasbourg?
3.07 at 1xBet, quoted at 18:00 UTC on 10 October. Our fair price is 2.65, so the quote sat 5.1 points above our number.
When is Nice v Strasbourg?
Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC (15:00 in France) at the Allianz Riviera.
Is Ismael Doukoure playing for Strasbourg?
No. Hugo Oliveira confirmed his captain is out injured, so Jeyland Mitchell and Karim Coulibaly are expected in central defence.