What a lost favourite does to your bankroll
A short favourite that loses costs far more than its win would have paid. The arithmetic at 1.21, how many wins it takes to recover, and how to stake for it.
On this page
A short favourite that loses costs you your whole stake, and its wins pay very little. At 1.21 one loss undoes the profit from almost five wins. That is why a lost favourite hurts a bankroll more than its "likely" label suggests.
The arithmetic at 1.21
| Price | Stake | Profit if it wins | Loss if it loses | Wins needed to cover one loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | 10 | 2.10 | 10 | 4.8 |
| 1.50 | 10 | 5.00 | 10 | 2.0 |
| 2.00 | 10 | 10.00 | 10 | 1.0 |
Our Desk had the Cowboys at 1.21 against Tampa Bay on 9 October. They lost. We rated Dallas 57.0%, well under the 82.6% the price implied, so we never thought the price was good. But plenty of people back 1.21 because it feels safe.
Why it feels worse than it is, and better than it is
Short favourites win most of the time, so a run of small wins feels like progress. Then one loss arrives and takes it all back. Over many bets, a short price only pays if it wins more often than the price implies. At 1.21 that is more than 82.6% of the time, before you account for the margin.
Staking so one loss is just one loss
- Flat units. Stake the same unit size on every bet, whatever the price. One loss then costs one unit, not a chunk you raised because it felt likely. We set out how to size a unit in what a betting unit is and how to size one.
- Do not chase. Doubling up to win back a lost favourite turns one bad result into a bad week.
- Expect runs. Even good numbers lose in streaks, as how long a losing run can honestly last shows.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you to avoid favourites. A favourite at a fair or long price is fine. It does not give you a stake size for your money. It only shows why the size of the loss matters as much as the chance of winning.
Common questions
How much does a lost short favourite cost?
Your whole stake. At 1.21 a 10 unit stake wins 2.1 units but loses 10. One loss wipes out the profit from nearly five wins at that price.
How many wins does it take to recover from a lost favourite at 1.21?
About five. Each win at 1.21 returns 0.21 of the stake, so one full stake back needs 1 divided by 0.21, roughly 4.8 wins.
Should I stake less on short favourites?
Flat staking by units keeps any single loss the same size whatever the price. That is usually safer than staking more on a team because it feels likely.