Staking
Stake sizes, losing runs, and the maths of not going broke.
4 articles
Staking
4Staking2 minHow long a losing run can honestly lastMost people's sense of a normal bad run is far too short. Here are the actual numbers, and what they mean for reading your own record.Staking1 minWhat Kelly actually tells you to doThe formula maximises long-run growth and assumes you know your edge exactly. You do not, which is why full Kelly is the wrong instruction.Staking2 minFlat stakes versus percentage stakesOne keeps the bet size still while the bankroll moves, the other keeps the risk still. They fail in opposite directions, so pick your failure.Staking2 minStaking without going brokeA method with a real edge and stakes that are too large still ends at zero. Staking decides whether the edge ever gets a chance to arrive.