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Staking

Read about stake sizes, losing runs and bankroll limits, with the maths behind managing betting risk and the limits of every staking method.

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Staking2 min readWhat a lost favourite does to your bankrollA short favourite that loses costs far more than its win would have paid. The arithmetic at 1.21, how many wins it takes to recover, and how to stake for it.
What a betting unit is and how to size oneA betting unit is a fixed slice of your bankroll used to size every stake. What it is, why it helps, how big to make it, and what a losing run costs in units.2 min readHow long a losing run can honestly lastMost people's sense of a normal bad run is far too short. Here are the actual numbers, and what they mean for reading your own record.2 min readWhat Kelly actually tells you to doThe formula maximises long-run growth for known inputs. Estimated probabilities make raw Kelly fragile, so uncertainty belongs in the stake.2 min readFlat stakes versus percentage stakesOne keeps the bet size still while the bankroll moves, the other keeps the risk still. They fail in opposite directions, so pick your failure.2 min readStaking without going brokeA method with a real edge and stakes that are too large still ends at zero. Staking decides whether the edge ever gets a chance to arrive.2 min read