Why one bookmaker's price is not the market
Our Desk shows the best price we found, often at one bookmaker. Here is when that price is an outlier, how much of an edge it can add, and how we check it.
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The best price on a BAI8 card is the highest quote we found for our pick, at one bookmaker, at one time. It is not the market price. When that one bookmaker sits well above everyone else, part of the edge on the card exists only there, and it may be gone, or limited, by the time you look. This piece shows how much difference that makes, using two of this week's cards, and what it does and does not change about our numbers.
Two cards, two different stories
Both cards are Thursday European games with gaps of more than 20 points.
| SC Braga v Gent | Lech Poznań v Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| Our pick and chance | Gent, 43.8% | Lech Poznań, 40.6% |
| Best price on our card | 5.00, Coolbet | 5.50, Nordic Bet |
| Edge at our best price | +23.8 pts | +22.4 pts |
| Typical price elsewhere | about 4.2 to 4.4 (OddStorm) | average about 5.15 (OddsSafari) |
| Edge at the typical price | about +20 pts | about +21 pts |
Braga v Gent. Coolbet's 5.0 was above the range OddStorm listed for other bookmakers. Take it away and the edge drops by about three points. Most of the gap survives, so the disagreement is still mainly between our number and the market, but the headline figure flatters it.
Lech Poznań v Sunderland. Nordic Bet's 5.5 was barely above the OddsSafari average of 5.15. Here the best price is close to the market, so almost the whole 22.4 points is our number against everybody's.
Why we show the best price anyway
The edge is the difference between our chance and the price you could get, and the best price is the one a careful reader would actually look for. We explained the difference between that and our fair price in fair price vs best price on a BAI8 card. Showing an average instead would hide the bookmaker and the time, which are the two things you need to check the number yourself.
What we should do, and what this piece is for, is say plainly when the best price is an outlier. A price well above the rest can mean a bookmaker that is slow to update, one that will limit stakes on it, or one with a view of its own. None of those make our chance more or less right.
What this does not tell you
The comparison prices above come from third-party sites at the time we checked, not from our own feed, and they move. A best price that matches the market does not make our number right: it only moves the question from "is this one bookmaker wrong?" to "is our research wrong?", which for gaps this size is a real possibility. Why we treat wide gaps with suspicion is in why a very wide edge makes us look twice.
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Common questions
What is the best price on a BAI8 card?
It is the highest price we found for our pick across the bookmakers we compare, with the bookmaker's name and the time it was quoted. It is one quote, not an average.
Why can one bookmaker's price be misleading?
A single bookmaker can be slow to move, can limit how much you stake, or can simply disagree with everyone else. If its price sits well above the rest, part of the edge on the card exists only at that bookmaker.
How much of the Braga v Gent edge comes from one price?
About three points. Our card shows Gent at 5.0 at Coolbet, a 23.8 point edge. OddStorm's comparison had the typical price nearer 4.2 to 4.4, where the edge on our 43.8% is still about 20 points.
Does a best price that matches the market make the edge real?
No. It only means the gap is between our number and the whole market rather than one bookmaker. Our chance can still be wrong.