How we work
How we get to a number: the model, the research, and how we put the two together.
5 articles
How we work
5How we work2 minWhy the closing line is the only honest scoreboardWhether a bet won tells you almost nothing over a season. Whether you beat the price at kick-off tells you something much sooner, and here is why that is.How we work1 minHow thirteen agents read one fixtureEach pass has one job and cannot see the others. That independence is what stops one confident mistake becoming the assessment.How we work2 minWhy research runs before the modelA model fitted on results cannot know a goalkeeper was ruled out this morning. Research is how information that has not reached the data gets into the number.How we work2 minWhat a calibration curve showsA model that says 70% should be right about seven times in ten. The curve that checks this is the plainest test of a forecast there is, and it is easy to read.How we work2 minHow BAI8 prices a fixtureA fitted model produces a number, deep research produces a second one, and the two are composed rather than averaged. The whole pipeline, in order.