Closing line value (CLV)
Closing line value is how the price you took compares with the last price before the start. Beating the close regularly is the best early sign of a real edge.
Example
You back a team at 2.20 and the price closes at 2.00. You beat the close by 10%, whatever the result of that match.
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Related terms
Edge (value bet)A bet has a positive edge when your probability times the decimal odds is over 1: the price pays more than the chance deserves. The edge is that, minus 1.Expected value (EV)Expected value is what a bet makes on average if placed many times: stake × (probability × decimal odds − 1). A positive EV means the odds beat the chance.Brier scoreA Brier score grades probability forecasts: the average squared gap between each stated chance and what happened, 1 or 0. Lower is better, and 0 is perfect.