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Edge (value bet)

A bet has a positive edge when your probability times the decimal odds is over 1: the price pays more than the chance deserves. The edge is that, minus 1.

Example

A 45% chance at 2.40: 0.45 × 2.40 = 1.08, an edge of 8%. At 2.10 the same chance has an edge of −5.5%.

Go further

What a positive edge actually meansThe full explainer, on the blogExpected value calculatorWhat a bet makes on average, its edge, and the swing over many bets.

Related terms

Expected value (EV)Expected value is what a bet makes on average if placed many times: stake × (probability × decimal odds − 1). A positive EV means the odds beat the chance.Closing line value (CLV)Closing line value is how the price you took compares with the last price before the start. Beating the close regularly is the best early sign of a real edge.Kelly criterionThe Kelly criterion stakes the share of a bankroll that maximises its long-run growth: the edge divided by the net odds. With no edge, it stakes nothing.