Expected goals (xG)
Expected goals (xG) measure the quality of a team’s chances: each shot gets the probability that a shot like it is scored, and the shots are added up.
Example
Three shots worth 0.40, 0.25 and 0.05 add up to 0.70 xG: on average, chances like those produce 0.7 goals.
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Related terms
Regression to the meanRegression to the mean is the tendency of an extreme run to be followed by results closer to average, because part of any extreme run is luck.Over/under 2.5 goalsOver/under 2.5 goals is a bet on whether a match has three or more goals (over) or two or fewer (under). The half goal means the bet can never be a refund.