Regression to the mean
Regression to the mean is the tendency of an extreme run to be followed by results closer to average, because part of any extreme run is luck.
Example
A team that scored from 25% of its shots over five games, against a usual 10%, is likely to score less often next, even playing the same way.
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Related terms
Expected goals (xG)Expected goals (xG) measure the quality of a team’s chances: each shot gets the probability that a shot like it is scored, and the shots are added up.VarianceVariance is how far real results stray from what the odds and the chances predict. In betting it is large: good bets can lose for weeks before the edge shows.