América Mineiro vs Avaí prediction, odds and team news
We make América Mineiro 42.4% at home to Avaí in Série B, fair price 2.36, and saw 3.65 at BetOnline.ag: a 15.0 point edge. Form, absences, risks.
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We lean América Mineiro at home to Avaí. Our numbers give América 42.4%, the draw 29.6% and Avaí 28.0%. The best price we saw for América was 3.65 at BetOnline.ag, against our fair 2.36: a 15.0 point positive edge. That is the widest edge on the public Desk this morning, and it comes on a match between the 19th and 17th teams in the table. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 19:30 UTC (16:30 in Brasília) on Saturday 14 November at the Arena Independência in Belo Horizonte, the last round of the Série B season. More Brazilian football predictions.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| América Mineiro | 42.4% | 2.36 | 3.65, BetOnline.ag | +15.0 pts |
| Draw | 29.6% | 3.38 | ||
| Avaí | 28.0% | 3.57 |
The Desk published this card at 02:07 UTC on 9 November and quoted the 3.65 at 04:12 UTC the same morning. Fair price is 1 / 0.424, about 2.36. A price of 3.65 implies 27.4%, so the edge is 42.4% minus 27.4%, about 15.0 points. The quote is five days old by kick-off; see how to read a BAI8 price that is days old.
Form: a relegated side with nothing to lose, a visitor with everything
América Mineiro are 19th on 26 points, per Data F.C., and their season is effectively over. Even so they have won three of their last five: 3–1 against Londrina, then 1–0 at Cuiabá and 1–0 against Operário-PR, either side of 1–0 defeats to Criciúma and Fortaleza. At home they have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 7 in 14, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.1 a game.
Avaí are 17th on 40 points after a 2–1 win over São Bernardo on Saturday, per OddsOcean, and need results to stay out of the bottom four. Away from home they have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 11 of 16, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.6, per Data F.C. A side that needs the win and rarely gets it on the road is the profile our model found interesting. Pressure cuts both ways, though, and that is the main way we can be wrong.
Team news
Avaí (as of the São Bernardo build-up, per Space Money):
- DG was suspended and Daniel Penha was ruled out with a lower-back injury.
- Caio Suassuna, Rildo and Jefferson Maciel were doubts.
- The club's 31 October medical bulletin still listed Del Piage, Juan Rocha, Pedro Cuiabá and William.
América Mineiro: we could not find a current absence list. Treat that as unknown, not as a clean bill of health.
How the match is likely to go
Both teams score under a goal a game on their own patches, so a low total is likely. Our draw chance of 29.6% is close to the league norm for a game between two sides with weak attacks. For how that market is priced, see the draw in football odds.
What could make us wrong
A relegation-threatened side playing the final round can find a level the table does not show. América also have little to play for, and motivation is hard for any model to price. A 42.4% chance loses more often than it wins.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
What this does not tell you
It covers the match result only, at a price quoted five days early. It does not know the starting line-ups, other round-38 results or any news after 9 November. Our chance does not move with the price once the card is published.
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Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour in América Mineiro vs Avaí?
América Mineiro at home. We give them 42.4%, the draw 29.6% and Avaí 28.0%.
Is América Mineiro a value bet against Avaí?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw: 3.65 at BetOnline.ag at 04:12 UTC on 9 November against our fair 2.36, a 15.0 point edge. They still fail to win almost six times in ten on our own chance.
When is América Mineiro vs Avaí?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 19:30 UTC (16:30 in Brasília) at the Arena Independência in Belo Horizonte, Série B round 38.
Who is missing for América Mineiro and Avaí?
Avaí were without left-back DG (suspended) and Daniel Penha (back injury) at last report, with Caio Suassuna, Rildo and Jefferson Maciel doubts, per Space Money. We found no fresh América Mineiro list.