Belarus vs Albania prediction: BAI8 call and scores

BAI8 backs Albania to beat Belarus on Sunday, but only at 42.8%: that is the likeliest result, not a probable one, and at the best price we found (2.00 at 1xBet) it is a pass. The draw is 32.6% and Belarus 24.6%. The likeliest single score is 0–1, at 16.2%.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Belarus vs Albania page to see the full call. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the numbers, the team news and the reasons.

Kick-off is Sunday 15 November at 17:00 UTC (18:00 in Budapest), per UEFA's match data, at the Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest. Belarus are the listed home side, but this is not a home game in any normal sense. RTSH reports that UEFA sanctions against Belarus, in force since a UEFA Executive Committee decision of 3 March 2022, require Belarusian teams to play home matches at neutral venues without spectators. It is matchday 6 of League C Group 1, the last round. Table before the game, from UEFA:

Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Albania	5	4	0	1	10	3	12
Belarus	5	3	1	1	7	2	10
Finland	5	2	1	2	9	4	7
San Marino	5	0	0	5	1	18	0

Our prediction

Prices were quoted on 14 November at 07:38 UTC. Our assessment ran at 07:45 UTC the same morning, after both sides had played on 12 November, so it already knows those results. Check the match page for anything newer.

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found	Where
Albania	42.8%	2.34	2.00	1xBet, 07:38 UTC
Draw	32.6%	3.07	3.50	Betfair, 07:38 UTC
Belarus	24.6%	4.06	4.50	Betfair, 07:38 UTC

Our verdict on the Albania pick is "Pass: neither majority likelihood nor positive value". It fails for three reasons. Albania do not clear the strict 50% line. Their chance does not beat the break-even of the price: 2.00 needs 50%, we say 42.8%, an edge of minus 7.2 points. And our conservative range crosses break-even, so even a favourable reading of the edge would not be robust. Confidence in the assessment is moderate (0.62), with sources agreeing at 0.867.

For someone thinking of betting, that means one thing: on our numbers the Albania price is too short, and we would not back it. A worked check: a price of 2.00 pays back 2.00 for every 1 staked, so it only breaks even if the team wins 1 time in 2. At 42.8%, a bettor taking 2.00 repeatedly would expect to get back about 0.86 for every 1 staked (0.428 × 2.00 = 0.856), a loss of roughly 14% of stakes over time. Our fair price for Albania is 2.34. The draw and Belarus prices are longer than our fair prices (3.50 against 3.07, 4.50 against 4.06), which is what a market that rates Albania higher than we do looks like.

The three bookmakers in our file imply Albania 49.7%, the draw 28.3% and Belarus 22%. We are about seven points cooler on Albania and about four points warmer on the draw. Three books is a thin read, so treat it as a direction, not a benchmark.

Why we back Albania

Albania are the stronger side on the table and beat Belarus 2–0 when the two met in Tirana: that is the case for the pick. The case for a pass is that the pick is not strong enough to pay.

Form. Albania have won four of five in the group and scored ten. On Thursday they beat Finland 2–0 in Tirana, Ernest Muçi scoring from long range in the 35th minute and Rey Manaj heading in an Elseid Hysaj cross in the 50th, per RTSH. Finland had Tenho sent off in the 68th minute. Albania also beat Belarus 2–0 in Tirana earlier in the campaign, according to RTSH's report on the Finland and Belarus draw. Belarus have conceded two goals in five games, the best defence in the group. They drew 0–0 with Finland in Helsinki on 30 September, when a second-half goal by Aleksandr Selyava was ruled out by VAR, and on Thursday won 0–2 at San Marino, with Gomanov in the 13th minute and Kontsevoi in the 17th, per FSGC. That is a side that does not concede and does not score much, which is why BAI8 expects low scores.

Stakes. Albania lead by two points. The arithmetic from UEFA's table is simple. A draw leaves Albania on 13 and Belarus on 11. A Belarus win leaves Belarus on 13 and Albania on 12. An Albania win makes it 15 and 10. Finland, on 7 points, can reach at most 10 with a win against San Marino, so only these two can win the group. UEFA's page states that the group winners are promoted to League B and runners-up go into the League B/C play-offs. So Albania need only not lose, and Belarus need to win. That asymmetry is the main reason a draw is as high as 32.6% in our file: one side is happy with it, the other cannot afford it, and neither is likely to open the game early. For how a table like this feeds into a price, read what a Nations League table does to the price.

Team news, Albania. Midfielder Ylber Ramadani is suspended after a yellow card against Finland, according to Arbresh.info, and is travelling with the squad. RTSH's squad announcement for the two November games includes a first call-up for Dinamo right-back Ysni Ismaili, who replaces Ivan Balliu, and leaves out Armando Broja, which RTSH calls expected. Anis Mehmeti, Marash Kumbulla and Sabah Kerjota are not in the squad, with no reason given. Goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha was described as still not ready when the squad was named. Not every omission is an injury, and a named squad shows who is available, not who starts. For Albania's last game, read the Albania vs Finland prediction, which has the form leading in.

Team news, Belarus. Sputnik Belarus reports coach Viktor Gancharenko named a 25-man squad, with camp opening on 8 November. It includes Maksim Ebong and Fedor Lapoukhov of CSKA Sofia, Trofim Melnichenko of Porto, Vitaly Lisakovich of Tobol and German Barkovsky of Polonia Warsaw. The article mentions no absentees or injuries, which is not the same as there being none. We found no later confirmed medical update for either side.

Officials and venue. Igor Pajač of Croatia is the referee, with Croatian assistants Bojan Zobenica and Ivan Mihalj, fourth official Patrik Pavlešić and VAR team Mario Zebec and Fran Jović, per Koha Jonë. With no crowd there is no home noise for either team, and the Belarus squad will have travelled to Budapest for what is nominally their home fixture.

What the market thinks. The market sees Albania nearer to a coin flip than we do. At 2.00, 1xBet's price is the shortest in our file for any outcome of this match. Where the market and our assessment disagree, we trust ours enough to publish it, but not enough to call it an edge: the gap runs the wrong way for a bet on Albania.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
0–1	16.2%
0–0	15.8%
1–1	13.7%
1–0	11.1%
0–2	9.4%

Over 1.5 goals is 57%, over 2.5 is 29.3% and over 3.5 is 12.3%. The five scores above total 66.2%, and every one has two goals or fewer in the match: a one-goal game or a goalless draw is the centre of the distribution. That fits two sides with the two best defences in a group where the fourth team has conceded 18. Our file covers the match result and these goal lines only, and we do not extend the call to any other market.

What could make this wrong

The honest range around each number is wide. Albania's chance sits between 22% and 64.9%, the draw's between 23.2% and 40%, and Belarus's between 10.5% and 44.3%. Nothing here is precise.

The risks are specific. Ramadani's suspension removes a midfield starter, and we cannot see who replaces him. Strakosha's fitness was open when the squad was named, so the goalkeeper is a live question. Both teams played on Thursday, and our research did not verify travel distances or recovery hours. Belarus must win, which can make them more direct than their record suggests. The weather forecast we saw was national rather than for the stadium, so we give it no weight. And an early goal would make the stakes asymmetry matter far more than any estimate of average play.

The call is also a call on the 90-minute result of this match, with Albania the pick. If you want the method behind these numbers, see BAI8's guide to betting on football. To see the full call and the research behind it, open the Belarus vs Albania match page. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It does not tell you the line-ups, which are not out, or whether anyone not named is fit. The call dates from the morning of 14 November and the prices from 07:38 UTC, so both may have moved. Our three-bookmaker consensus is thin. We did not find Belarus's own federation release for this game, so the Belarus team news rests on one report from 6 November. Nothing here is a promise about the result: a 42.8% chance still loses more than half the time.