Anderlecht vs Salzburg prediction, odds and team news

How it settled

Anderlecht beat Salzburg 2–0 at Lotto Park, per BBC Sport. Ludwig Augustinsson scored on 20 minutes and Marten Winkler added a second on 90. Our pick was Salzburg at 3.93 on 1xBet, an 11.4 point edge on the Desk record, and it settles as lost. The home side won comfortably; the injury-hit Salzburg away thesis did not hold, and Winkler even scored for Anderlecht.

Our call before the match

Written on 3 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

We pick Salzburg to win at Anderlecht on Thursday, but only just. Our numbers make this close to an even game: Salzburg 36.9%, Anderlecht 35.2%, the draw 27.9%. The reason it is a call is the price. The best we saw for Salzburg on the morning of the game was 3.67 at 1xBet, against our fair price of 2.71, a 9.6 point positive edge. The market rates Anderlecht at home much higher than we do, and it has moved a little further their way since Tuesday, when the best price was 3.81.

Kick-off is 17:45 UTC on Thursday 5 November (18:45 in Brussels) at Lotto Park, matchday four of the Europa League league phase.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Anderlecht	35.2%	2.84
Draw	27.9%	3.58
Salzburg	36.9%	2.71	3.67, 1xBet	+9.6 pts

The Desk published this card at 21:54 UTC on 29 October and the 3.67 was quoted at 04:50 UTC on 5 November. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance: 1 / 0.369 is about 2.71. A price of 3.67 implies 27.2%, so the edge is 36.9% minus 27.2%, about 9.6 points. The three chances add up to 100%.

How the price has moved on the Desk:

Quoted (UTC)	Best price	Book	Implied	Edge
3 Nov, 04:07	3.81	1xBet	26.2%	+10.6 pts
5 Nov, 04:50	3.67	1xBet	27.2%	+9.6 pts

A 9.6 point edge on a near coin toss is a large gap. Either we are wrong about Salzburg's level away from home, or the market is leaning hard on Anderlecht's home record and Salzburg's injuries. The rest of this piece is about which.

The table: two sides that need points

After three games of eight, Salzburg are 21st with four points and Anderlecht 22nd with three, per Lineups Today. The top eight go straight to the last 16 and 9th to 24th go to a play-off, so both are on the line between a play-off place and going out. Salzburg's one defeat was heavy, 4–0 at home to AC Milan. Anderlecht have scored four and conceded three across their three games.

Domestic form is better on both sides. Anderlecht beat Westerlo 4–1 on Saturday after a setback at Gent, with Mihajlo Cvetković, Mario Stroeykens, Thelo Aasgaard and Ambros on the scoresheet. Salzburg beat Austria Lustenau 5–1 at the weekend, per Krone, and Haris Tabaković has scored four in their last five games, per Lineups Today.

Team news

Anderlecht have two fresh doubts. Marten Winkler and Thelo Aasgaard both missed Wednesday afternoon's training, per Anderlecht Online. Winkler, a regular starter in recent weeks, also missed the Westerlo game through injury. Aasgaard played the full 90 at the weekend and scored his first goal for the club from a free kick. Kaïs Barry and Oleg Reabciuk, who also sat out against Westerlo, are expected back, per Lineups Today. Cvetković, two goals and an assist in his last five, should lead the line.

Salzburg have a longer list. Per Krone:

• Out: captain Nikolas Veratschnig (knee), playmaker Sota Kitano (ankle) and John Mellberg (thigh), the last two for some time.
• Doubtful: centre-back Kevin Boma, who picked up a calf knock against Lustenau.
• Hoping: Damir Redzic trained in part on Monday and left-back Dominik Schmid hopes to be ready.
• Back: Leandro Morgalla played the second half on Saturday.

The defence is the worry on the eve of the game. Three regulars miss out, per Salzburger Nachrichten, and Frans Krätzig replaces the injured Dominik Schmid at left-back, so the expected back four has never played together.

Jesper Lindstrøm is the open question. Danny Röhl told Krone things "look very good" for him. Lineups Today reports he picked up a muscle injury in training and lists him out. Enrique Aguilar and Justin Omoregie are also unavailable, per Lineups Today. Check the line-up about an hour before kick-off.

What could make us wrong

The market's view is the obvious risk. It prices Salzburg at only about 26%, far below our number, and Salzburg's absences are mostly in the spine of the team: captain, playmaker and possibly the defensive leader. The Desk published its number on 29 October, before Boma's knock on Saturday and before Schmid was ruled out. Winkler and Aasgaard cut the other way, but they are doubts, not confirmed absences. Our chance does not move after publication; only the price beside it refreshes. That makes the edge look larger than it would if repriced today.

There is also the Milan result. A 4–0 home defeat is one match, but it is a reminder that this Salzburg side can come apart against good opposition.

For every Europa League fixture we price this week, see more Europa League predictions.

What this does not tell you

It covers the match result only, not goals, corners or handicaps. A 36.9% pick loses or draws about 63% of the time, so a positive edge says the price is good, not that Salzburg will win. For the longer view of how prices like this pay off, read how to bet on football with a model.

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