Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim prediction, odds and team news

How it settled

Crystal Palace and Hoffenheim drew 1–1 at Selhurst Park, per BBC Sport. Fisnik Prass put Hoffenheim ahead on 7 minutes, and Daichi Kamada equalised in the first minute of stoppage time. Our pick was Hoffenheim at 3.95 on Unibet (NL), an 11.5 point edge on the Desk record, and the draw settles it as lost. Hoffenheim led and looked like winning until Kamada's late equaliser after Wharton's red; the away-win call was close but unsettled as lost.

Our call before the match

Written on 1 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

Our Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim prediction is Hoffenheim, at a price. We rate the game almost level: Hoffenheim 36.8%, Palace 36.3%, the draw 26.9%. The best price on the Desk this morning was 3.8 on Hoffenheim at Unibet (NL), quoted at 04:48 UTC on 4 November, against our fair price of 2.72. That is a 10.5 point positive edge. This is a call on a price, not a claim that Hoffenheim are clear favourites.

Kick-off is 17:45 UTC on Thursday 5 November (18:45 in Paris) at Selhurst Park, in the Europa League league phase. Updated 4 November with the new price and the latest team news.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Crystal Palace	36.3%	2.75
Draw	26.9%	3.72
Hoffenheim	36.8%	2.72	3.8, Unibet (NL), 04:48 UTC 4 Nov	+10.5 pts

The Desk published this card at 21:38 UTC on 29 October. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance: 1 / 0.368 is about 2.72. The 3.8 implies 26.3%, so the edge is 36.8% minus 26.3%, or 10.5 points.

How the price has moved

Quoted	Best price on Hoffenheim	Implied chance	Edge
01:58 UTC, 1 Nov	3.9, Unibet (NL)	25.6%	+11.2 pts
04:48 UTC, 4 Nov	3.8, Unibet (NL)	26.3%	+10.5 pts

The price has shortened a little, by 0.1, after Hoffenheim lost at Werder Bremen and Palace lost at home to Tottenham. Our chance has not moved: a Desk card keeps the chance it was published with, so only the price and the edge change.

Team news

Crystal Palace. Per Sports Mole, Ismaïla Sarr (groin), Takehiro Tomiyasu (calf) and Chadi Riad (knee) are out, and Jørgen Strand Larsen (ankle) and Quinten Timber (hamstring) are doubts. Jean-Philippe Mateta can play: his red card at Tottenham was in the Premier League, and that ban does not carry into Europe.

Hoffenheim. Centre-back Robin Hranáč had surgery on the lateral meniscus in his left knee on 2 November after he was hurt in the cup tie against Holstein Kiel, per RotoWire and iDNES, and he is out for several weeks. Bambasé Conté, Nathan De Cat, Patrick Wimmer, Albian Hajdari and Valentin Gendrey are also out, per Sports Mole, and Vladimír Coufal is a doubt. That leaves Ozan Kabak and Koki Machida as the main central pair.

What the research weighs

• Palace's league form is poor. They lost 2–0 at home to Tottenham on 31 October, per ESPN, with 0.14 expected goals from two shots against 3.26 from 34. Palace say it is their sixth league defeat in nine under Pierre Sage, and they sit in the relegation places.
• Palace are short in attack. Sarr is out until after the November international break, per the club, and the two doubts are both attackers or wide players. More on this in Palace after Spurs: what it does to Hoffenheim.
• The table is close. Palace are 15th on 4 points in the league phase, Hoffenheim 23rd on 3, per Eurosport. Neither side can treat this as a dead rubber.

What could make us wrong

Hoffenheim are not in good shape either. They lost at Werder Bremen on 31 October (our Werder call settled as a win on the record), went out of the cup to Holstein Kiel, and now lose Hranáč from the back line. The Desk priced this card on 29 October, before all of that, and its chance does not move after publishing. Mateta being available in Europe also makes Palace's striker problem smaller here than at the weekend. A 36.8% chance means Hoffenheim fail to win close to two times in three even if our number is right. It is an estimate, not a promise.

For how this match fits the rest of the Europa League picture, see /predictions/europa-league/.

What this does not tell you

It covers the match result only. Line-ups are not confirmed, and this is the first meeting between the clubs, per Crystal Palace's match page, so there is no head-to-head to lean on. For why an edge this size still loses often, read what a positive edge actually means.

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