Andorra vs Gibraltar prediction, odds and team news
We make the draw 40.3% in Andorra vs Gibraltar, fair price 2.48, and saw 3.19 at 1xBet: an 8.9 point edge. Nations League form, news and risks.
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We back the draw in Andorra vs Gibraltar. Our numbers give the draw 40.3%, Gibraltar 30.2% and Andorra 29.5%. The best price we saw for the draw was 3.19 at 1xBet, against our fair 2.48: an 8.9 point positive edge. These are two of the lowest-scoring teams in European football, and they drew 0–0 in September. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 19:45 UTC on Friday 13 November, matchday 5 of League D Group 1. More Nations League predictions.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra | 29.5% | 3.38 | ||
| Draw | 40.3% | 2.48 | 3.19, 1xBet | +8.9 pts |
| Gibraltar | 30.2% | 3.31 |
The Desk published this card at 04:55 UTC on 8 November and quoted the 3.19 at 04:01 UTC on 9 November. Fair price is 1 / 0.403, about 2.48. A price of 3.19 implies 31.3%, so the edge is 40.3% minus 31.3%, about 8.9 points. The quote is four days old at kick-off; see how to read a BAI8 price that is days old.
Form: two sides that rarely score
Andorra have no win in 26 matches, per Dongqiudi. This campaign they have drawn once and lost twice, scoring one goal and conceding three: 1–2 and 0–1 against Malta either side of the 0–0 at Gibraltar. Over their last ten they score 0.4 a game and concede 1.8.
Gibraltar have gone 14 matches without a win. They have drawn both of their group games (1–1 at Malta and the 0–0 with Andorra), and lost 0–1 twice to Latvia in March. Over their last ten they score 0.3 a game and concede 2.4.
In the ten-game samples each side has failed to score seven times. That is the core of our 40.3%: with so few goals to go round, the game is more likely to end level than a model built on larger-scoring teams would expect. For the draw as a price, see what the draw is worth in football odds.
Team news
Gibraltar: coach Scott Wiseman has recalled Louise Annesley and called up Luke Schofield, Jayvan Garro, Jesse Gomez and Jeremy Perera. Kai Mauro is missing and Jaiden Bartolo (whose brother chose Malta) is not in the squad, per the Gibraltar Chronicle. Wiseman says Gibraltar must go for wins here and against Malta on 16 November to stay in the promotion race.
Andorra: we could not find a current absence list. Treat that as unknown.
What could make us wrong
Gibraltar have to win, per their own coach, and a side forced to attack opens up space. If Andorra, who concede more than a goal and a half a game over their last ten, are broken early, the draw dies. Our 40.3% is well above what this fixture usually gets, and that is the number to doubt first. A 40% chance fails to land six times in ten.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
What this does not tell you
It covers the match result only, at a price quoted four days early. It does not know the starting line-ups, the venue conditions or any news after 9 November. Our chance does not move with the price once the card is published.
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Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour in Andorra vs Gibraltar?
Nobody: we make the draw the most likely result at 40.3%. Gibraltar get 30.2% and Andorra 29.5%.
Is the draw a value bet in Andorra vs Gibraltar?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw: 3.19 at 1xBet at 04:01 UTC on 9 November against our fair 2.48, an 8.9 point edge. The draw still fails to land about six times in ten on our own chance.
When is Andorra vs Gibraltar?
Friday 13 November 2026, 19:45 UTC, UEFA Nations League League D Group 1.
Who is missing for Andorra and Gibraltar?
Gibraltar are without Kai Mauro and have Jaiden Bartolo out of the squad, with Louise Annesley and Luke Schofield called up, per the Gibraltar Chronicle. We found no current Andorra absence list.