Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction and team news

BAI8 backs Iceland to win in Plovdiv, giving them a 48.1% chance against 29.2% for the draw and 22.7% for Bulgaria. The best price we found, 1.96 at LiveScore Bet, is a shade short of that, so the verdict is a pass: Iceland are the likelier winner, but not by enough to pay.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Bulgaria vs Iceland page to see the full call. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the numbers, the reasoning and the team news behind them.

Kick-off is Friday 13 November at 19:45 UTC (21:45 in Plovdiv) at the Hristo Botev Stadium, matchday 5 of League C Group C4, per UEFA's match data.

Our prediction

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found
Bulgaria	22.7%	4.41	4.38, 1xBet (6 Nov, 21:45 UTC)
Draw	29.2%	3.42	3.60, Coral (6 Nov, 21:46 UTC)
Iceland	48.1%	2.08	1.96, LiveScore Bet (6 Nov, 21:46 UTC)

The fair price is 100 divided by the chance: the odds at which a bet would break even over many repeats if our chance is right. Prices were quoted on 6 November and BAI8 assessed the match on 7 November, so check any live price before you act on it.

The verdict is a pass. The label on the match page reads "Pass: neither majority likelihood nor positive value". In plain words, three things hold:

• Iceland's 48.1% is under the 50% line we use to call a side more likely than not to win.
• A price of 1.96 needs Iceland to win 51% of the time to break even. We give them 48.1%, which is 2.9 points short.
• The range around our number runs from 21.7% to 74.5%. That crosses break-even, so even the idea that the price is close is not robust.

For someone thinking of betting, this is the honest reading: Iceland are the side to lean towards if you must pick a winner, and the market agrees (two bookmakers' prices, with the margin removed, give Iceland 50.4%, the draw 27.2% and Bulgaria 22.4%). But at 1.96 you are being paid slightly less than the risk is worth. Our confidence in the call is moderate, and the two model families behind it agree closely (a source agreement of 0.927).

Why we back Iceland

The reverse fixture was not close. Iceland beat Bulgaria 3–0 at Laugardalsvöllur on 3 October, their first win over Bulgaria. Orri Steinn Óskarsson scored twice and Mikael Egill Ellertsson got the third, per KSÍ. Iceland were the stronger side throughout and Bulgaria created little. BAI8's research also records that Iceland led shots on target 6–3 and that Óskarsson missed a penalty. Five meetings before that had produced four Bulgaria wins and a draw, but that was a different generation of players, and we give the old record no weight.

The table favours them. UEFA's standings before this round:

	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Iceland	4	2	2	0	7	1	8
Estonia	4	1	3	0	2	1	6
Bulgaria	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
Luxembourg	4	1	0	3	2	7	3

Iceland are unbeaten with one goal conceded in four games. Bulgaria have scored three. The group winner is promoted to League B, the runner-up goes into a League B/C play-off, and third and fourth stay in League C, per UEFA, so this is promotion context, not relegation danger. For how a table like this moves a price, see what a Nations League table does to the price.

Bulgaria's form is thin, with one real positive. They lost 1–2 at home to Luxembourg on 26 September after leading, drew with Estonia, lost in Reykjavik, then won 2–0 at Luxembourg on 6 October through Kristiyan Balov and Atanas Iliev (BNR). That was their first win of the campaign and the first result under Atanas Ribarski to go their way. A home side with a coach who has had a good week is not a side to write off, and it is why Bulgaria sit at 22.7% and not lower.

Team news.

• Bulgaria: Ribarski called up three first-time players, Simeon Shishkov (Ludogorets), Georgi Lazarov (Chernomorets) and Ivan Pankov (AEK Larnaca), per BNR. He left out Levski's Kristian Dimitrov and Svetoslav Vutsov, so Levski have nobody in the squad. Goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov and midfielders Petko Panayotov and Kristian Stoyanov were dropped from the previous squad too, and BNT gives no reason for any of the omissions. Preparation began on Sunday 8 November. Neither BNT report mentions an injury.
• Iceland: Albert Gudmundsson (Lazio), goalkeeper Elías Rafn Ólafsson and Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason are out injured, and Andri Baldursson is not fit after only recently returning to training, per Tribunata. Þórir Jóhann Helgason replaces him. Gylfi Sigurðsson and Aron Einar Gunnarsson are both in the squad, along with Óskarsson and Hákon Arnar Haraldsson. Daníel Leó Grétarsson was picked while on leave from AGF for family reasons, and coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson said they are taking it a day at a time (Fotbolti.net).
• Off the pitch: Icelandic media reported that some players drank too much after the October win, and Gunnlaugsson chose talks over punishments. Tribunata and DV both cover it. We found no evidence it changes anything on the pitch, and we do not price it.
• No starting XI is confirmed by either side as we write. Treat any line-up you read before Friday as a guess.

What the market thinks against what we think. The market consensus has Iceland on 50.4%, we have 48.1%. That is a gap of 2.3 points on a thin sample of two bookmakers, which is agreement for practical purposes. We do not disagree with the market here. We just do not find a price that beats it.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
0–1	14.5%
1–1	13.3%
0–0	11.8%
0–2	10.2%
1–0	8.8%

No single score has more than a one-in-seven chance, which is normal in football. The shape is a low-scoring match: over 1.5 goals is 64.9%, over 2.5 is 37.5% and over 3.5 is 17.9%. Both teams have been tight in this group, and a 0–0 draw in Tallinn and a 2–0 away win were two of the results in it. If you want to see how a goals line is built from a score grid, our guide to betting on football with a model walks through it.

What could make this wrong

• The range is wide. Iceland's 48.1% sits inside a range of 21.7% to 74.5%. An international side with few recent games and new call-ups is hard to measure, and the band says so.
• Unknown line-ups. Bulgaria have three debutants and a coach about a month in. One good week of training can change a team's shape in ways no past data shows.
• Turnaround. Both sides play again within three days, Bulgaria away to Estonia on 16 November and Iceland at home to Luxembourg the same day. Coaches may rotate. We have no evidence either way, so no rotation is built in.
• Weather and crowd. We found no reliable forecast for kick-off hour at Plovdiv, and no crowd figure, so neither is in the number.
• Iceland's own problems. They drew 0–0 in Tallinn, and Gunnlaugsson has spoken of difficulty finding players between the lines against Estonia. A repeat is Bulgaria's best route to a draw, which is already 29.2%.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

Want the full reasoning and the live numbers? Open the Bulgaria vs Iceland page. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. BAI8 publishes research and never places bets.

What this does not tell you

This is a probability, not a forecast of the score. Iceland winning 48.1% of the time still means they fail to win more than half the time. The figures are from the 7 November assessment and the prices from 6 November, so team news, injuries and prices since then are not in them. We do not have a confirmed line-up, a weather forecast or expected minutes. The market view rests on two bookmakers, and the verdict applies only to Iceland to win at 1.96, not to the draw, Bulgaria or any other market. A pass means no bet is worth recommending at that price, not that Iceland will lose.