BAI8 record update: 26 calls, 15 won
Every BAI8 Desk call in our current record: 26 settled, 15 won and 11 lost against 14.4 expected. All seven new results, the misses listed first.
On this page
Our Desk record now holds 26 settled calls: 15 won, 11 lost. Our own probabilities, added up, expected about 14.4 wins, so the results are close to what the numbers said they should be. Seven calls settled since our last update, and four of them missed. That is the honest summary.
The record card
| Settled | Won | Lost | Expected wins | Brier score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 15 | 11 | 14.4 | 0.231 |
The Brier score is the average squared gap between our chance and what happened. Saying 50% every time scores 0.25, and lower is better. At 0.231 we are a little better than a coin, on far too few results to lean on.
The seven new results, misses first
| Date | Match | Our side | Our chance | Best price | Edge (pts) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Cowboys v Buccaneers (NFL) | Cowboys | 57.0% | 1.21, Betfair | -25.6 | Lost |
| 9 Oct | Blues v Sharks (NHL) | Blues | 51.7% | 1.91, Bet Right | -0.7 | Lost |
| 8 Oct | White Sox v Guardians (MLB) | White Sox | 52.3% | 2.03, 1xBet | +3.1 | Lost |
| 8 Oct | Bruins v Mammoth (NHL) | Mammoth | 50.1% | 1.87, Betfair | -3.3 | Lost |
| 9 Oct | Flames v Avalanche (NHL) | Avalanche | 59.4% | 1.46, ReBet | -9.1 | Won |
| 8 Oct | Senators v Flyers (NHL) | Senators | 51.4% | no price | n/a | Won |
| 8 Oct | Liberty v Sam Houston (NCAAF) | Liberty | 63.6% | 1.20, PlayUp | -19.7 | Won |
Dates are kick-off dates in UTC. The previous 19 are in BAI8 record, 4 to 8 October.
What the misses say
The Cowboys loss is the loudest. We had Dallas at 57.0%; the price of 1.21 implied 82.6%. So we already thought the market was far too sure. A negative edge that loses is not a failed bet we took. It is a side we rated, priced shorter than we liked, which then lost. We look at that pattern in what a lost favourite does to your bankroll.
The White Sox miss on 8 October hurts more, because it was a positive edge. Of three positive-edge calls so far, one won and two lost. Three is not a sample.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you our numbers beat the market. With three positive-edge calls there is nothing to measure. It does not include calls still waiting to settle. And 15 from 26 would mean as little if it were 11 from 26.
Common questions
What is BAI8's record as of 9 October 2026?
Twenty-six calls settled. The side we published won 15 and lost 11. Adding up our own probabilities, we expected about 14.4 wins.
How did BAI8's positive-edge calls do?
Three of the 26 had a positive edge at the price we saw. One won (Dodgers at Braves, 1.99) and two lost (White Sox v Guardians on 7 and 8 October).
What was BAI8's biggest miss this week?
The Cowboys against the Buccaneers. We gave Dallas 57.0% and the best price was 1.21. They lost.