Saturday results: four from nine
Nine BAI8 Desk calls settled on Saturday 10 October. Four won, five lost, against 3.9 expected wins. Every result, the misses first, and what it means.
Nine of our Desk calls settled on Saturday 10 October. Four won and five lost. Our own probabilities added up to about 3.9 expected wins, so this was a normal day: the right number of wins, roughly, for the chances we gave. After Friday's six misses from seven, that matters more than the headline.
The five misses
| Fixture | Our side | Our chance | Best price seen | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg v Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich | 55.5% | 1.23, GTbets | −25.8 pts | Lost |
| TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | Hoffenheim | 49.3% | 1.49, 1xBet | −17.8 pts | Lost |
| Aston Villa v Brentford | Brentford | 37.5% | 2.69, 1xBet | +0.3 pts | Lost |
| Ipswich Town v Fulham | Fulham | 37.2% | 2.57, BetOnline.ag | −1.7 pts | Lost |
| Genoa v Fiorentina | Fiorentina | 37.5% | 2.43, Unibet (NL) | −3.6 pts | Lost |
Bayern at Augsburg is the one that stings. We had them at 55.5%, much lower than the 1.23 price implied (81%), and they still lost. Our number was the more cautious one, and even that was not cautious enough.
The four wins
| Fixture | Our side | Our chance | Best price seen | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers v Kilmarnock | Rangers | 53.2% | 1.18, Coral | −31.5 pts | Won |
| SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | Stuttgart | 45.6% | 1.65, Coral | −15.0 pts | Won |
| Watford v Burnley | Burnley | 37.3% | 2.44, Betfair | −3.7 pts | Won |
| Chelsea v Bournemouth | Chelsea | 37.2% | 1.79, 1xBet | −18.7 pts | Won |
Every win came on a call with a negative edge at the price we saw. That is a reminder of what the edge measures: whether the price paid enough for the chance, not whether the side would win. We explain why we publish those calls at all in what a positive edge actually means.
The record after Saturday
Forty calls settled: 18 won, 22 lost, against about 20.4 expected wins from our own probabilities. Seven of the 40 had a positive edge when published; one of those won. Seven is far too few to judge anything.
What this does not tell you
One day of nine results says almost nothing about whether our numbers are right. It does not show the final scores (the record stores the outcome, not the score), and it does not include Rayo v Athletic, which has not yet appeared on the record.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
How did BAI8 do on Saturday 10 October?
Nine Desk calls settled. Four won and five lost. Adding up our own probabilities, we expected about 3.9 wins.
What is BAI8's full record now?
Forty calls settled. The side we published won 18 and lost 22. Our probabilities added up to about 20.4 expected wins.
Did BAI8's positive-edge call win on Saturday?
No. The only Saturday call with a positive edge at the price we saw was Brentford at Aston Villa, at 0.3 points, and it lost.