Blue Jackets v Penguins prediction
Blue Jackets v Penguins on Friday: we make Pittsburgh 51.3% and saw 2.06 at Betfair, a 2.7 point edge. Our chances, the injuries and what could go wrong.
On this page
We make Penguins at Blue Jackets close to even, with a small lean to Pittsburgh: Penguins 51.3%, Columbus 48.7%. The best price we saw on the Penguins was 2.06 at Betfair against our fair price of 1.95, a gap of 2.7 points. That is a small edge on a near coin toss, and an estimate rather than a promise.
The game is Friday 9 October at 23:10 UTC (19:10 in Columbus) at Nationwide Arena.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 48.7% | 2.05 | ||
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 51.3% | 1.95 | 2.06, Betfair | +2.7 pts |
The 2.06 was quoted at 02:06 UTC on 9 October, so it is fresh. At 2.06 the market implies 48.5% for Pittsburgh. We have 51.3%. The NHL moneyline includes overtime and shootouts, so there are only two outcomes here, unlike football. Why that changes how an edge looks is in two-way vs three-way: why the edge looks different.
What the public evidence says
- Rest against rust. CBS Sports notes Columbus have not played since a 4-1 loss to Utah on 3 October. Pittsburgh lost 5-3 in Washington on Wednesday, with Sidney Crosby on minus-4.
- Columbus are thin on defence. ESPN lists Dante Fabbro, Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson out, plus Isac Lundestrom, though other reports have Severson close to a return.
- Pittsburgh have gaps too. Ryan Graves and Justin Brazeau are out, with Bryan Rust day to day, per ESPN.
- A new goalie may start. CBS says Cam Talbot could make his Columbus debut on Friday or Saturday.
What could make us wrong
Hockey is noisy. A hot goaltender can swing a single game well beyond any number. If Talbot starts and plays well, or Severson returns and steadies the Columbus blue line, our Pittsburgh number may be too high.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Pittsburgh will win. On our numbers they lose almost half the time. A 2.7 point gap is small and can vanish with one line move. And it does not show the research behind the card.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 make favourites for Blue Jackets v Penguins?
Pittsburgh, barely. We give the Penguins 51.3% and Columbus 48.7%. That is close to a coin toss.
What is the best price BAI8 saw on the Penguins?
2.06 at Betfair, quoted at 02:06 UTC on 9 October. Our fair price is 1.95, so the quote sat 2.7 points above our number.
Why is the market favouring Columbus?
Columbus are at home and rested, having not played since 3 October, while Pittsburgh lost on Wednesday. The market weighs that more heavily than we do.