Two-way vs three-way: why the edge looks different
An NFL or NHL moneyline has two outcomes; a football match result has three. Why that changes chances, fair prices and how big an edge can look on a BAI8 card.
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A two-way market has two outcomes that add to 100%. A three-way market has a draw as well, which takes its share from both teams. So in football each side starts with a smaller chance, prices are longer, and the edge on a card reads differently from an NFL or NHL edge. Same method, different shape.
Today's Desk, side by side
| Fixture | Market | Outcomes | Our chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks v 49ers | Moneyline, two-way | 2 | SEA 47.8%, SF 52.2% |
| Blue Jackets v Penguins | Moneyline, two-way | 2 | CBJ 48.7%, PIT 51.3% |
| Malaga v Espanyol | Match result, three-way | 3 | Malaga 31.2%, Draw 29.9%, Espanyol 38.9% |
In the two-way games, both chances sit near 50%. In Malaga v Espanyol, no outcome reaches 40%, because the draw has almost 30%.
Why the edge reads differently
The edge is our chance minus the chance the price implies, in points.
- Two-way. Our selection is usually near 50%, prices near 2.00. A 3 point edge is a modest disagreement. A 13.2 point edge, as on the 49ers today, is a big one.
- Three-way. Selections sit around 30 to 40%, prices around 2.50 to 3.50. A 3.4 point edge, as on Espanyol, is a larger share of a smaller chance.
The prices also respond differently. A small change in chance moves a long price more than a short one, so three-way prices look jumpier.
Where the draw goes
In a three-way market the draw is a real outcome to price, not noise. If we are too low on the draw, we are too high on at least one team. That is the most common way a football edge turns out to be imaginary. We set out how to think about it in what the draw is worth in football odds, and the whole pricing method is in how BAI8 prices a fixture.
A weakness, said plainly
Our record is small and mostly two-way games: NHL, MLB and NFL. We have fewer settled three-way football calls, so we know less about how our draw numbers hold up. Until that record grows, read a football edge with extra caution.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you two-way edges are better or worse than three-way ones. It does not adjust for margin, which is often higher in three-way markets. And it says nothing about any single result.
Common questions
What is a two-way market?
One with two possible outcomes, such as an NFL or NHL moneyline where overtime decides a winner. The two chances add up to 100%.
What is a three-way market?
One with three outcomes, such as a football match result: home, draw or away. The draw takes a share of the chance away from both teams.
Why do football edges on BAI8 look smaller?
Because each side's chance is lower once the draw takes its share, so the same error in points is a bigger fraction of a smaller number, and the prices are longer.