Moneyline bets explained: picking the winner
A moneyline bet is a bet on who wins the game outright, with no points spread. How it pays, how to read plus and minus prices, and real NFL examples.
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A moneyline bet is a bet on which team wins the game, full stop. There is no points spread to cover: a one-point win pays the same as a thirty-point win. The underdog's price is longer and pays more; the favourite's is shorter and pays less. Every NFL and college football card on our Desk is a moneyline call, so the examples below are real.
How a moneyline pays
US books show moneylines as American odds. A plus number is the profit on a 100 stake; a minus number is the stake needed to win 100.
| Pick (Desk card or record) | Decimal | American | Profit on 100 | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois (v Hawaii) | 2.68 | +168 | 168 | 37.3% |
| Las Vegas Raiders (v Rams) | 2.50 | +150 | 150 | 40.0% |
| Ole Miss (at Texas) | 2.34 | +134 | 134 | 42.7% |
| Tennessee (at South Carolina) | 2.16 | +116 | 116 | 46.3% |
| Denver Broncos (at Chargers, 11 Oct) | 1.60 | -167 | 60 | 62.5% |
| Baltimore Ravens (v Titans, 4 Oct) | 1.17 | -588 | 17 | 85.5% |
The first four are today's live Desk prices; the last two are settled NFL calls from our record. For a minus price, the American number is 100 divided by (decimal minus one), with a minus sign: 100 / 0.17 is about 588.
Moneyline or spread
The spread asks a different question: does the team win by more than a set number of points? A favourite at -588 on the moneyline might be -10.5 on the spread at a price near even money. The moneyline is simpler, but it puts a heavy price on favourites; the spread spreads the risk across the margin. Key margins matter for spreads, not for the moneyline, as key numbers in American football: 3 and 7 explains.
Where a moneyline bet has value
The price is only half the picture. Our Raiders card gives them 56.2%; the 2.50 on offer implies 40%, so the price is longer than our chance says it should be. A short favourite can look safe and still be poor value: our Ravens call won at 1.17, but we gave them 68.8% against the 85.5% the price implied. That trap is the subject of moneyline edge when the favourite is short.
Two-way and three-way
In the NFL and college football a moneyline has two sides. In football (soccer) the match result has three, because the draw is a real outcome priced on its own. The difference is covered in two-way basketball odds vs three-way football.
What this does not tell you
The implied chances above include the bookmaker's margin, so they are a little higher than the market's true view. Tie rules differ by bookmaker, so read them before betting a two-way line. And a moneyline price says nothing about whether the bet is good; that needs an honest chance to compare it with.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What is a moneyline bet?
A bet on which team wins the game outright. There is no points spread: if your team wins by one point or by thirty, the bet pays the same.
What does +150 mean on a moneyline?
A 100 stake wins 150 in profit if the bet wins. In decimal odds that is 2.50, and it implies a 40% chance.
What does -588 mean on a moneyline?
You must stake 588 to win 100 in profit. That is a heavy favourite, 1.17 in decimal, implying about 85.5%.
What happens to a moneyline bet if the game is a tie?
It depends on the bookmaker's rules. NFL regular-season games can end tied after overtime, and many books then void a two-way moneyline and return stakes, but check the rules where you bet.