Celta Vigo v Juventus prediction and odds
Juventus visit Celta on Thursday missing Locatelli, Yildiz and Thuram. We make Juve 38.6% and saw 2.11, short of our fair 2.59. Chances and risks.
We make Juventus favourites at Celta Vigo, but only just: Juventus 38.6%, Celta 32.4%, the draw 29.0%. The best price we saw on Juventus was 2.11 at Pinnacle against our fair price of 2.59. That is an 8.8 point negative edge, so the market rates Juventus much higher than our research does. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 19:00 UTC on Thursday (20:00 in the UK, 21:00 in Vigo) at Balaídos, in the Europa League league phase.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 32.4% | 3.09 | ||
| Draw | 29.0% | 3.45 | ||
| Juventus | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.11, Pinnacle | −8.8 pts |
The 2.11 was quoted at 18:20 UTC on 3 October, twelve days before kick-off. At 2.11 the market implied 47.4% for Juventus. We have them nine points lower. Pinnacle is the sharpest book we track, so a gap that size against their price is one to read with care, not excitement. Why that matters is in why a closing line is the only honest scoreboard.
What moved the number
- Juventus's injury list is long. Sports Mole lists captain Manuel Locatelli, Kenan Yildiz, Khéphren Thuram, Jérémie Boga, Jeff Ekhator and reserve goalkeeper Kamil Grabara out. Lloyd Kelly is available again after a UEFA ban.
- Rotation is likely. Sports Mole says Luciano Spalletti is set to rotate during a run of five games in two weeks, with Lazio next.
- Celta have their own gaps. Carl Starfelt, Miguel Román and Jones El-Abdellaoui are out, but veteran forward Iago Aspas was back on the bench at the weekend.
What could make us wrong
The sources do not agree on everything: Tips.GG lists Kelly among the unavailable, Sports Mole says he can play. If Juventus name a stronger side than the rotation talk suggests, the market's view looks better than ours. A draw at 29.0% is a big slice too: on our numbers, close to one game in three ends level, and a draw settles a Juventus pick as a loss. That is the logic behind double chance betting explained.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Celta will win. We make Juventus the likeliest single result. It says 2.11 is short for a side we give under 39%. It is match result only, and we will not know who Spalletti rests until the line-ups.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour for Celta Vigo v Juventus?
Juventus. We give Juventus 38.6%, Celta Vigo 32.4% and the draw 29.0%.
Is Juventus good value at Celta Vigo?
Not on our numbers. The best price we saw was 2.11 at Pinnacle, which implies 47.4%. Our fair price is 2.59, so the quote sits 8.8 points under our chance.
When is Celta Vigo v Juventus?
Thursday 15 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC (20:00 in the UK, 21:00 in Vigo) at Balaídos, in the Europa League league phase.
Who is injured for Juventus against Celta Vigo?
Sports Mole lists Manuel Locatelli, Kenan Yildiz, Khéphren Thuram, Jérémie Boga, Jeff Ekhator and Kamil Grabara out. Celta are without Carl Starfelt, Miguel Román and Jones El-Abdellaoui.