Double chance betting explained
Double chance covers two of the three results in one bet. How it works and how to find its fair price, using tonight's real Champions League chances.
On this page
Double chance is a football bet that covers two of the three results at once. You pick home or draw (1X), away or draw (X2), or either team to win (12), and the bet wins if either of your two results happens. It wins more often than a straight win bet and pays less. Its fair price is one divided by the two chances added together.
The three versions
| Bet | Wins if | Loses if |
|---|---|---|
| 1X | Home win or draw | Away win |
| X2 | Away win or draw | Home win |
| 12 | Either team wins | Draw |
12 is the one people forget. It is the bet against a draw, and in a game where both sides need to win it can be the most natural of the three.
Fair prices from tonight's real numbers
Every BAI8 football card gives a chance for each of the three results. Add any two and you have the double chance. These are tonight's Champions League cards from the Desk.
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | 1X fair | X2 fair | 12 fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético v Man Utd | 42.6% | 26.0% | 31.3% | 1.46 | 1.74 | 1.35 |
| Villarreal v Napoli | 35.8% | 28.0% | 36.2% | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.39 |
| Lens v Sporting | 33.9% | 27.0% | 39.1% | 1.64 | 1.51 | 1.37 |
Take Villarreal v Napoli. Napoli or draw is 36.2% plus 28.0%, which is 64.2%. One divided by 0.642 is 1.56. If a bookmaker offers more than 1.56 on X2, the price is longer than our fair number; less, and it is shorter. The full card is in Villarreal v Napoli prediction and odds.
Where the margin hides
A bookmaker builds its double chance price from the same three chances, with its margin already inside them. Two margins do not cancel; you pay for both legs. So a double chance price is rarely kinder than the match odds it comes from. Check it the same way you would check a single result: convert it to a chance and compare. If you are new to that step, implied probability in one minute covers it, and what the draw is worth in football odds explains how the draw leg is priced.
What this does not tell you
It does not give you a bookmaker's double chance price; the Desk quotes match result only, so the fair prices above are our arithmetic, not quotes. It does not say double chance is a safer bet in the sense that matters either. Winning more often at a shorter price is not the same as losing less over time.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What is double chance betting?
A bet that covers two of the three match results at once: home or draw (1X), away or draw (X2), or either team to win (12). It wins if either result happens.
How do you work out a fair double chance price?
Add the two chances you cover and divide one by the total. If home is 36% and draw 28%, home or draw is 64% and the fair price is 1 divided by 0.64, about 1.56.
Is double chance better value than a straight win bet?
Not by itself. It wins more often at a shorter price, and the bookmaker's margin is still in it. Value depends on the price against your chance, as with any market.