Chasing losses: what it does to a bankroll
Chasing losses means raising stakes to win back what you lost. Why losing runs are normal, how fast doubling up drains a bankroll, and what to do instead.
On this page
Chasing losses means raising your stake to win back what you have just lost. It turns a normal losing run into a large loss, because each bigger stake makes the next defeat bigger. Losing runs are not a sign that something has gone wrong: even picks we lean on lose a large share of the time. The fix is to decide your stake before the day starts and keep it.
Our own picks lose often
These are the six calls on the Desk on 25 October. The last column is how often each one loses on our own numbers.
| Pick | Our chance it wins | Our chance it does not |
|---|---|---|
| Virtus Bologna | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Liverpool | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Celta Vigo | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Orlando City | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| Sunderland | 37.1% | 62.9% |
Every one of these has a positive edge on our numbers, and three of them are expected to lose more often than they win. If the chances are right, all six lose together about 2 times in 100. That is unlikely on one weekend, but over a season of weekends it will happen.
Losing runs are normal
A worked example, not our record: take 100 bets that each win 40% of the time. In a simulation of that, a run of at least 5 losses in a row turned up in about 98 of every 100 sequences, and a run of at least 8 in about half. A run of 8 losses with good numbers is not bad luck to be fixed; it is what 40% picks look like. Betting drawdowns: how deep a dip goes covers the same idea in money.
What doubling up does
Worked example: start at 1 unit and double the stake after every loss.
| Losses in a row | Next stake | Total lost so far |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | 16 | 15 |
| 6 | 64 | 63 |
| 8 | 256 | 255 |
One win at even money gets back the losses plus 1 unit. Eight losses, which the example above says is roughly a coin flip over 100 bets, ask for a 256-unit stake to win 1 unit. Chasing with bigger prices instead, such as long accumulators, does the same thing in a different shape; see accumulator odds explained.
What to do instead
- Set the stake before you look at the day's results: flat, or a fixed share of the bankroll, as in flat stakes versus percentage stakes.
- Spread several bets on one day as planned in how to stake several bets on one day.
- Set a stop for the day or week and keep it.
- Judge the numbers over hundreds of bets, not a bad weekend; see how many bets before a record means anything.
The wider plan is in staking without going broke.
Where this stops
Our chances are estimates, not facts, so the "does not win" column is an estimate too. The streak figures come from a simple model with equal 40% bets, which real betting is not. And no staking plan turns a losing method into a winning one. If you are chasing and cannot stop, talk to a support service such as GamCare.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Keep your record and your bankroll in one place
Record every bet with its stake, odds and result, and watch your profit, your return and your total stake move as each one settles.
Free plan: 5 assessments a month. No card.
Common questions
What does chasing losses mean in betting?
Raising your stake, or betting on things you had not planned to, to win back money you have just lost. The stake is set by the loss, not by the bet.
Why is chasing losses dangerous?
Losing runs are normal even with good numbers, and each bigger stake makes the next loss bigger. Doubling from 1 unit, six losses in a row cost 63 units.
How do I stop chasing losses?
Fix your stake before the day starts, as a flat amount or a set share of your bankroll, and set a stop. If you cannot stop, contact a support service such as GamCare or BeGambleAware in the UK.