Betting drawdowns: how deep a dip goes
A drawdown is the fall from a record's high point to its low. Our own record fell 13.7 units in three days and recovered. What that means for stake size.
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A drawdown is how far a betting record falls from its highest point before it recovers. Our own record had one of 13.7 units: at one unit a call, it went from +0.20 units on 7 October to -13.50 on 10 October, then passed its old high on 15 October and reached +18.13 by 22 October. Today it stands at +15.15, a 2.98 unit dip from that high. The depth of a dip, not the average return, is what decides how big a stake you can afford.
Our record, day by day
Running units at the end of each settlement day, for the 239 priced calls on the public record, at one unit a call.
| Day (UTC) | Running units | High so far | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Oct | -1.80 | +0.20 | 2.00 |
| 9 Oct | -8.38 | +0.20 | 8.58 |
| 10 Oct | -13.32 | +0.20 | 13.52 |
| 12 Oct | -3.64 | +0.20 | 3.84 |
| 15 Oct | +3.78 | +3.78 | 0 |
| 18 Oct | +14.51 | +15.51 | 1.00 |
| 21 Oct | +11.12 | +15.52 | 4.40 |
| 22 Oct | +18.07 | +18.13 | 0.06 |
| 23 Oct | +15.15 | +18.13 | 2.98 |
The deepest point inside 10 October was -13.50, which is where the 13.7 units comes from. The record shows 146 won and 97 lost overall; the longest run of losses in settlement order was six.
What the same dip does to different stakes
Say you started with a 100 unit bankroll and followed every call through that worst stretch.
| Stake per call | Worst drawdown | Share of bankroll |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 units | 6.9 units | 6.9% |
| 1 unit | 13.7 units | 13.7% |
| 2 units | 27.4 units | 27.4% |
| 5 units | 68.5 units | 68.5% |
At 5 units a call, the same calls that ended up +15 would have taken two thirds of the bankroll first. Most people stop before the recovery. That is the practical case for small, flat stakes, set out in staking without going broke.
Why the next one can be deeper
The worst drawdown you have seen is a floor, not a ceiling. Our deepest dip came within the first 39 priced calls; the longer a record runs, the more chances it has to string bad days together. How long a bad run can last even for sound bets is in how long a losing run can honestly last.
What this does not tell you
It does not predict our next drawdown or say the record will keep recovering; past units are not future units. It uses flat one unit stakes at the prices we called, not the prices you could have got. And 239 calls is still a short record, as how many bets before a record means anything explains.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What is a drawdown in betting?
The fall from the highest point a betting record has reached to the lowest point after it, measured in units or as a share of the bankroll.
What is BAI8's biggest drawdown so far?
13.7 units, at one unit a call. Our priced record fell from +0.20 units on 7 October to -13.50 on 10 October, then passed its old high on 15 October.
How big a drawdown should I plan for?
Bigger than the worst you have seen. Our record's worst dip was 13.7 units in its first 39 priced calls; a longer record will usually produce a deeper one. Size stakes so a dip several times that size does not end your bankroll.