Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest prediction
Palace v Forest today: we make Crystal Palace 36.9% against a fair price of 2.71, and saw 2.90 at Betfair. Team news, Glasner's return and the risks.
On this page
We make Crystal Palace narrow favourites at Selhurst Park: Palace 36.9%, Forest 34.1%, the draw 29.0%. The best price we saw on Palace was 2.90 at Betfair against our fair price of 2.71, a gap of 2.4 points. That is small, and it is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 13:00 UTC today (14:00 UK time). Oliver Glasner brings Forest back to the club he left.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.90, Betfair | +2.4 pts |
| Draw | 29.0% | 3.44 | ||
| Nottingham Forest | 34.1% | 2.93 |
The 2.90 was quoted at 16:00 UTC on 10 October. At 2.90 the market implies 34.5% for Palace; we have 36.9%. Three outcomes inside eight points of each other is close to a coin with three sides, which is why the draw is worth more than people think in a game like this.
What the public evidence says
- Forest lose two starters. Glasner said Nikola Milenkovic bruised a bone in a training duel and Igor Jesus will be out for a few weeks with a calf injury (Metro, 9 October).
- Neco Williams is a doubt. He trained on Thursday, then had a fever and missed Friday. The Racing Post expects him to start anyway.
- Palace are short at both ends. Henderson, Mateta and Tomiyasu are injured, and Disasi serves the last of a three-match ban. Football365 expects Ahanor to join Richards and Canvot in a back three.
- Two returns help Palace. Khalaili is fit after a scare on international duty and Ismaila Sarr could make his first start of the season.
What could make us wrong
Glasner knows this Palace squad better than any opposing manager. With Mateta out, Palace may lack a focal point, and a team without its main striker can be over-rated by numbers built on last season. Late team news on Williams also shifts the Forest side of the card.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Palace will win. On our numbers they do not win about 63% of the time. A 2.4 point gap is inside the range where a small price move or one line-up change wipes it out.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 make favourites for Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest?
Crystal Palace, just. We give them 36.9%, Forest 34.1% and the draw 29.0%.
What is the best price BAI8 saw on Crystal Palace?
2.90 at Betfair, quoted at 16:00 UTC on 10 October. Our fair price is 2.71, a gap of 2.4 points.
When is Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest?
Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC (14:00 UK time) at Selhurst Park.
Who is missing for Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest?
Palace are without Henderson, Mateta and Tomiyasu, with Disasi suspended. Forest are without Milenkovic and Igor Jesus, and Neco Williams is a doubt with illness.