Ipswich v Nottingham Forest preview: team news

Ipswich play without Sasa Lukic tonight, and Nottingham Forest get Morgan Gibbs-White and Nikola Milenkovic back. Forest are still favourites in the market despite sitting 19th on five points, while promoted Ipswich are 10th on nine. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC (8pm UK time) at Portman Road. We have a call on this game on the Desk; its numbers were for members before kick-off and are now public, with the result, in the section below.

How it settled

Ipswich and Nottingham Forest drew 1–1 at Portman Road, per ESPN. Neco Williams put Forest ahead on 13 minutes from a Daniel Muñoz cross, and Julio Enciso levelled on 41 after a Milenkovic error. Forest had most of the chances, about 2.31 expected goals to Ipswich's 0.46, per ESPN's commentary. The team news held: Gibbs-White and Milenkovic played and Liam Delap led the line without scoring against his old club.

Our call was for members only before kick-off. Now it has settled, the Desk record shows it in full:

Our pick	Our chance	Fair price	Price we called against	Edge	Result
Nottingham Forest	42.9%	2.33	2.39, 1xBet	+1.1 pts	Lost

The 2.39 was quoted at 00:46 UTC on 18 October, five days out, and the card was published at 01:29 UTC that morning. A 1.1 point edge is close to no edge at all; we wrote about that kind of call in what a near-zero edge is telling you. The research was right that Forest were the better side (the expected goals say so) and wrong to rate them as likely to turn it into a win as they were: a 42.9% favourite draws or loses more often than it wins.

Ipswich team news

Player	Status	Source
Sasa Lukic (midfield)	Out, groin	BBC Sport, Nottingham Post
Jack Taylor (midfield)	Out, knee	Football365
Abdul Fatawu (wide)	Available after a one-match ban	Football365

Gary O'Neil said on Thursday that Lukic "will be out tomorrow" and should be back with the squad early next week, before the trip to Hull. Football365 had expected him to play, so readers who saw that earlier preview should note the change. Without him, Football365 names Florentino Luis and Azor Matusiwa as the options to partner Exequiel Palacios. O'Neil also said Emersonn has yet to play 90 minutes.

Nottingham Forest team news

Player	Status	Source
Morgan Gibbs-White (midfield)	Fit, trained all week	Nottingham Post
Nikola Milenkovic (defence)	Fit to start	Nottingham Post
Igor Jesus (striker)	Out, calf; target return v Man City	Nottingham Post
Nicolo Savona (defence)	Out, knee, no game since January	Nottingham Post

Glasner said of his captain: "Yes, he's ready. He trained for the entire week, so no issues." Liam Delap, who used to play for Ipswich, leads the line with Chris Wood as cover, per Football365. We looked at the Jesus injury in what Igor Jesus's calf does to Forest's price and at Milenkovic's absence in what Milenkovic's absence does to Forest.

The market and the table

Prices quoted by Football365 on 22 October, turned into decimal odds and the chance each one implies:

Outcome	Fractional	Decimal	Implied chance
Ipswich	2/1	3.00	33.3%
Draw	11/4	3.75	26.7%
Forest	6/5	2.20	45.5%

The three add up to 105.5%; the extra 5.5 points is the bookmaker's margin. Forest are 19th with five points after three straight defeats and have not scored in four home games. Football365 says their underlying numbers are much better: fourth on expected points and about seven points short of them. O'Neil agreed, saying Forest "have performed better than their points tally would suggest". The market is siding with those numbers over the table.

What this does not tell you

It does not show what our chance would have been with the line-ups known: the call was made five days out and never moved. One drawn game says very little about whether 42.9% was the right number. And a single bookmaker's prices from yesterday are not the best price available tonight. If you are new to reading a football price, start with how to bet on football with a model.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.