Denmark vs Norway prediction: BAI8 call and scores

BAI8 backs Denmark to beat Norway at Parken on Tuesday, and gives them a 44.6% chance. The draw is 25.2% and Norway 30.2%. Our fair price on Denmark is 2.24, and the best price we found was 2.50 at Betfred (UK), quoted at 21:38 UTC on 11 November. The verdict is "Positive value, but still more likely not to happen".

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Denmark vs Norway page to see the full call. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. This is the last game of League A Group 4, and our call was made on 11 November, before this weekend's two group games (Norway v Wales and Portugal v Denmark, both on Saturday 14 November), so the table below will move.

Kick-off is 20:45 in Copenhagen (19:45 UTC) on Tuesday 17 November at Parken, per UEFA's match data and the ForDanmark matchday page.

Our prediction

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found
Denmark	44.6%	2.24	2.50, Betfred (UK), 21:38 UTC on 11 Nov
Draw	25.2%	3.97	3.80, BoyleSports, 21:38 UTC on 11 Nov
Norway	30.2%	3.32	2.62, Betfred (UK), 21:38 UTC on 11 Nov

A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. If our numbers were exactly right, that is the price at which backing an outcome would break even.

The verdict, in plain words. Denmark at 2.50 needs a 40% chance to break even. We give them 44.6%, so there is a 4.6 point edge on paper. But the verdict is "value without majority": Denmark are under 50%, so they are more likely not to win than to win. And the conservative range around our number runs from 22% to 65.8%, which crosses the 40% break-even line. So the edge is not robust. We call it a lean, not a strong call.

What it means if you are thinking of betting. Take a 10 unit stake at 2.50. If Denmark's true chance is our 44.6%, the average return is 11.15 units, a gain of 1.15 per 10 staked over many such games. If the true chance is nearer the bottom of our range, the same bet loses money. One match cannot tell you which. The draw at 3.80 is a touch below our fair price of 3.97, and Norway at 2.62 is well below 3.32: we see no value on either. Confidence in the assessment is moderate (0.618), with the sources agreeing at 0.915.

Why we back Denmark

The market is closer than we are. Four bookmakers' prices, once the margin is stripped out, give Denmark 39%, the draw 24.6% and Norway 36.4%. We are higher on Denmark by 5.6 points and lower on Norway by 6.2. Denmark are the home side, at a sold-out Parken (per DBU), and Norway have lost three of their four group games, so the gap makes sense. Our view is that the market gives Norway a little too much. For how a group table moves a price, see what a Nations League table does to the price.

Form: both have lost more than they have won. UEFA's results for Group A4:

Date	Fixture	Score
24 Sep	Norway v Denmark	3–2
27 Sep	Denmark v Wales	2–0
1 Oct	Denmark v Portugal	2–4
4 Oct	Wales v Denmark	0–1
win was that 3–2 over Denmark in September, so Norway have already beaten
this opponent once. Denmark's defeat to Portugal on 1 October was a game they
twice pulled level in, per DBU's report: Mikkel Damsgaard scored in the 23rd
minute and Rasmus Højlund in the 53rd, before Portugal scored the last goal in
the 87th. Denmark's two wins both came against Wales without conceding.

Team news, Denmark. Brian Riemer picked 24 players, and DBU names Rasmus Nicolaisen, Andreas Jungdal and Victor Bak as possible debutants, with Mathias Jensen, Jesper Lindstrøm and William Osula returning after missing the earlier group games. Patrick Dorgu, first thought injured, was added on 9 November after playing about half an hour for Manchester United, per Ritzau. Andreas Christensen was also added, but turned the call-up down: Riemer says he is rehabilitating and does not feel ready for national team football.

Team news, Norway. Fredrik Aursnes is out with a groin strain and has been replaced by Hugo Vetlesen of Club Brugge, per NTB and the NFF. Jørgen Strand Larsen has also left the camp injured, and Erik Botheim of Viking is his replacement, per Viking on 11 November. Alexander Sørloth is back from injury, and came on after 60 minutes for Atlético in a 2–1 loss to Barcelona. Martin Ødegaard and Erling Haaland both played the full 90 for their clubs at the weekend, per NTB. Haaland, Ødegaard and Sørloth are in the squad as named; we cannot say who starts, and neither can any source yet.

What is at stake. Before this weekend's games the group stood as below, per UEFA. The top two reach the quarter-finals.

	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Portugal	4	4	0	0	9	4	12
Denmark	4	2	0	2	7	7	6
Wales	4	1	0	3	2	5	3
Norway	4	1	0	3	6	8	3

Denmark are second, three points ahead of Norway and Wales, and Norway are away at Copenhagen with a lot to play for. NTB reports Norway could finish last in the group. That is the part of the story our model cannot price in full, because Saturday's results change who needs what on Tuesday.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
1–1	11.7%
2–1	9.2%
1–0	7.9%
1–2	7.4%
2–0	7%

The five likeliest scores together are 43.2%, so no single score is a good bet: the likeliest, 1–1, still happens less than one game in eight. The goals lean the same way as the match result. At least two goals has an 80.1% chance, three or more 56.9%, and four or more 34.5%. Put simply, we expect a game with goals in it, and a draw is a real possibility (25.2%), but the single most likely shape is Denmark by a goal.

What could make this wrong

• The range is wide. Our Denmark chance of 44.6% sits inside a range of 22% to 65.8%. Norway's runs from 14.1% to 55.1%. These are two sides whose recent results do not separate them cleanly: Norway won the first meeting.
• Saturday changes the table. Denmark play Portugal and Norway play Wales on 14 November, and our call was made before both. A heavy result, a knock or a change of what each side needs would move the price and our number.
• Squads are still moving. Both teams have had replacements in the last week (Vetlesen, Botheim, Dorgu), and late changes before kick-off are common.
• Rotation. Denmark play on Saturday and again on Tuesday, which can mean rotation, and our research could not find a firm view on who plays how many minutes.
• Weather and venue. The weather records we found disagreed with each other, so we give weather no weight.
• The edge is thin. At 2.50 the break-even is 40% and our range reaches well below it. That is why the verdict says value, but more likely not to happen.

BAI8 has the call, the full reasoning and the live prices on the Denmark vs Norway page. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. To see how we turn a model into a price, read how to bet on football with a model, and for Denmark's last game see Portugal vs Denmark.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It does not know the result of Saturday's games, who starts on Tuesday, or how either side will line up. The BAI8 figures come from an assessment made on 11 November at 21:40 UTC, and the bookmaker prices were read at 21:38 UTC the same night: they will have moved. A 44.6% chance is not a prediction that Denmark win, and a positive edge on one game is not a result. BAI8 does not place bets and holds no bookmaker account, so everything here is research, not instruction.