England vs Croatia prediction and team news

How it settled

England 2–1 Croatia, full time on Thursday 12 November. The call published before kick-off was England (match result) at 1.28 with Matchbook, and it won. It stays on BAI8's public record with every other settled call, wins and losses alike.

The research read England as the stronger side and warned that a team needing only a point rarely runs up the score, and a 2–1 win rather than another rout fits that reading.

Our call before the match

Written on 10 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

England vs Croatia on Thursday sets a side that needs only a draw against one fighting to stay in League A. England beat Croatia 7–0 in Rijeka in October, they are at home, and a point at Wembley sends them to the quarter-finals. Croatia arrive without Josip Šutalo, Ivan Perišić and, almost certainly, Luka Sučić. England have lost two centre-backs of their own since the squad was named: Marc Guehi for the window and Ezri Konsa for this game.

BAI8 has researched this match in depth: open the England vs Croatia match page to see the call. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the form and the team news any price has to account for.

Kick-off is 19:45 UK time (19:45 UTC) on Thursday 12 November at Wembley, matchday 5 of League A Group 3, per UEFA's match data. More Nations League predictions.

What is at stake

	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Spain	4	4	0	0	12	5	12
England	4	3	0	1	14	3	9
Croatia	4	1	0	3	4	14	3
Czechia	4	0	0	4	2	10	0

Table per UEFA, before matchday 5. The top two go to the quarter-finals next March. England are six points clear of Croatia with two games left, so a draw at Wembley settles their place, per England Football. To finish first they need to win at Wembley and in Madrid on Sunday and end up ahead of Spain on goal difference.

Croatia have the opposite problem. Three points from four games and a goal difference of minus 10 leave them in a fight to stay in League A, with Czechia at home on Sunday. A point at Wembley would help them more than it would hurt England, and that matters for how the game is played.

Form

England lost 3–2 to Spain in their first group game, then won the next three without conceding: 2–0 and 3–0 against Czechia and 7–0 in Croatia, per UEFA's standings and the League A results on Wikipedia. Fourteen goals for and three against in four games.

Croatia beat Czechia 2–1, then lost three in a row: 4–1 and 2–1 to Spain and that 7–0 at home to England. Perišić's suspension comes from a red card against Spain, per Moj Kraj.

Team news

England (per England Football, The Standard and Sports Mole):

• Marc Guehi withdrew with a hip injury after going off at half-time for Manchester City at Nottingham Forest. Dan Burn replaces him.
• Ezri Konsa will not be in contention for Croatia "as he continues to follow his own programme", the FA said on 10 November. He stays with the squad for Spain. James Hill of Bournemouth is called up, his first senior call-up.
• Bukayo Saka is injured. Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Noni Madueke were left out for selection reasons; Marcus Rashford is recovering from a hip injury.
• Declan Rice is back after missing the last window, and Ben White is in his first squad since March.
• Jobe Bellingham and Josh King have first senior call-ups.
• Harry Kane equalled Peter Shilton's record of 125 caps in the September and October window and breaks it if he plays.

The Standard's predicted XI, updated after Konsa's news: Pickford; Quansah, Hill, Burn, Hall; Rice, Anderson; Ngumoha, Jude Bellingham, Gordon; Kane. It names the alternative too: Ben White at right-back, with Quansah moving inside next to Burn. That is a predicted XI, not a confirmed one.

Croatia (per HNS, Moj Kraj and tportal):

• Josip Šutalo is out for both games with a hamstring injury picked up for Napoli. Niko Galešić of Dinamo Zagreb is called up in his place, his first senior call-up.
• Ivan Perišić is suspended.
• Luka Sučić has a fever, and Slaven Bilić put the chance he misses Wembley at 99%. Lovro Majer was added to the squad.
• Kristijan Jakić hurt a knee ligament for PAOK against Olympiacos. Croatian reports collected by Svijet Klađenja on 10 November expect him to miss both games, though he joined the camp for further tests.
• Andrej Kramarić, Marin Pongračić and Franjo Ivanović were not in the squad because of injury.
• Joško Gvardiol and Josip Stanišić had health issues over the weekend but are available. Luka Modrić captains the side.

How the match is likely to go

On paper England have the stronger squad, home advantage and the memory of 7–0. Croatia are short at centre-back, without Perišić's experience on the left and without one of their two Sučić brothers in midfield. England are short at centre-back too: with Guehi and Konsa gone, the back four in front of Pickford may include a debutant.

Two things shape the game beyond the team sheets. First, England only need a point, and a team that only needs a point rarely chases a fourth or fifth goal once it leads. Second, Croatia's midfield of Modrić, Kovačić and Petar Sučić can still keep the ball against anyone, which slows a game down. Both pull against reading the October scoreline as a level.

For how a price handles a side that only needs a point, see what a Nations League table does to the price. For the draw specifically, see what the draw is worth in football odds.

What could make us wrong

Squads change fast in an international week: Guehi and Konsa have already gone and there may be more. A 7–0 is an outlier, not a level, and treating it as one overrates England. And this piece does not say whether any bookmaker's price is too short or too long; that is what the researched call on the match page is for.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It has no BAI8 chance, fair price or edge: those are on the match page, not here. It does not know the confirmed line-ups or any news after the morning of 11 November.