Croatia vs Czech Republic prediction, odds and call

BAI8 backs Croatia to beat Czechia on Sunday and gives them a 50.9% chance, against 25.9% for the draw and 23.2% for Czechia. That makes Croatia the likeliest result, but our verdict is "likely outcome, unattractive price": at the best price we found, 1.44, the bet needs Croatia to win far more often than we think they will.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Croatia vs Czech Republic page to see the full call. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below is the call in detail, the reasoning and the team news.

Kick-off is 20:45 local time (19:45 UTC) on Sunday 15 November 2026 at the Opus Arena in Osijek, per UEFA's match data and the Croatian federation (HNS). It is the last game of League A Group 3 for both sides.

Our prediction

Prices below were the best we found across the bookmakers we track, all quoted on 10 November 2026 (Coral at 11:39 UTC for Croatia, Betfred (UK) and Betfair Sportsbook at 11:39 UTC for the other two). They will have moved. The assessment itself was run on 10 November at 12:55 UTC.

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found
Croatia	50.9%	1.96	1.44, Coral, 10 Nov 11:39 UTC
Draw	25.9%	3.86	5.00, Betfred (UK), 10 Nov 11:39 UTC
Czech Republic	23.2%	4.31	7.50, Betfair Sportsbook, 10 Nov 11:39 UTC

The fair price is 100 divided by our chance: the price at which a bet would break even if we are right. Our confidence in the call is moderate (score 0.62, with 0.92 agreement between the sources feeding the model).

The verdict. Croatia are above the 50% line, so they are the likeliest outcome. But 1.44 means a break-even chance of 69.4%, and we give them 50.9%. That is 18.5 percentage points short. Our own range for Croatia runs from 30.4% to 73.7%, and the top of that range only just clears break-even, so there is no robust edge in backing them at that price. In plain words: we think Croatia are more likely to win than not to win by a small margin, and we would not call 1.44 a price worth paying.

What the market thinks. The consensus of eighteen bookmakers is 67.1% Croatia, 19.6% draw and 13.4% Czechia. The market is far more confident in Croatia than we are. That gap of 16 points is the whole story of this match: either the bookmakers are right and Croatia are a comfortable favourite, or the market is leaning on reputation more than on a defence that has just conceded seven.

We have not made a call on the draw or on Czechia. The best prices above are there so you can compare them with our numbers, nothing more. If you want the method for turning a chance into a price, read how to bet on football with a model.

Why we back Croatia

The table. After four games in Group A3, UEFA's standings read Spain 12 points, England 9, Croatia 3 and Czechia 0. Croatia have won once: 2–1 in Prague on 26 September. They then lost 4–1 in Seville, 7–0 to England at home and 2–1 to Spain in Split. Czechia have lost all four and scored two goals in them.

The Prague game. Croatia's one win came against these opponents, in Slaven Bilić's first match back as coach. Per HIA, Croatia dominated the first half without scoring, Luka Modrić put them ahead in the 47th minute, Adam Karabec levelled for Czechia in the 54th, and Marco Pašalić headed the winner in the 77th from an Ivan Perišić assist. A Czech goal two minutes later was ruled out for offside. It was a one-goal game that Croatia controlled.

The squad. Croatia's absences are real. HNS says Kramarić (an injury he wants to treat fully), Marin Pongračić (hamstring) and Franjo Ivanović (concussion) were ruled out on 6 November. Josip Šutalo then dropped out on 9 November with an injury from Napoli's game with Lazio, and Bilić called up Dinamo's Niko Galešić in his place. Bilić also said Kristijan Jakić had a knee ligament injury that "does not look good", and that Luka Sučić's temperature made him a 99% doubt for the first match, so Lovro Majer was added. Joško Gvardiol and Josip Stanišić were fit. Modrić, Perišić, Mateo Kovačić and Nikola Vlašić were all on Bilić's wider list of 27 October.

Czechia are thinner in results than in health. Their coaching staff said on 9 November that all 24 selected players were fit, including Vladimír Coufal and Adam Hložek after minor muscle problems. Santi Denia has called up two debutants, the Teplice winger Idris Hopi and Mladá Boleslav's David Kozel, and Tomáš Souček returns after missing the first camp. Assistant coach Radek Bejbl said the goal is to stay alive in the race not to finish last.

What is riding on it. Per České noviny, the two worst fourth-placed teams across League A go straight down to League B, and Czechia currently rank second weakest, one goal ahead of Turkey on goal difference. Czechia need points, and a team that needs points and has nothing to lose can be harder to play than its table position suggests. Croatia sit three points above the bottom.

Why we are not higher. Croatia's backline has conceded 14 goals in four matches, they have just lost 7–0 at home, and their central defence is rebuilt on short notice. Those facts are why our chance is 50.9% and not the 67.1% the market implies.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
1–1	12.3%
1–0	10.9%
2–1	9.6%
2–0	9.4%
0–0	7.6%

The likeliest single score is a draw, even though Croatia are the likeliest result. Each home-win score takes only part of Croatia's 50.9%, so a single score such as 1–0 can sit below 1–1.

On goals, we give 74.8% for over 1.5, 49.4% for over 2.5 and 27.5% for over 3.5. Over 2.5 is a coin flip on our numbers. We have not looked at goals prices for this match, so there is no comparison to make there.

What could make this wrong

• Thursday changes things. Croatia play England at Wembley on 12 November and Czechia host Spain in Prague the same day. Injuries, suspensions, tiredness and a different league position will all show up after those games. Our assessment predates both.
• Line-ups are unknown. Neither coach has named a team. The Jakić and Sučić news could get better or worse, and Bilić can move Gvardiol between centre-back and left-back, which changes the shape.
• The range is wide. A Croatia chance anywhere from 30.4% to 73.7% is inside our uncertainty. Czechia's range is 9.0% to 42.1%. A single central figure hides that.
• Small samples. Four games each, a new coach on both sides and a 7–0 result that may or may not tell you anything.
• Motivation. Czechia are fighting to avoid one of the two relegation places, and that can lift a side. For how that shows up in prices, see what a Nations League table does to the price.

For the live call, open the Croatia vs Czech Republic match page. BAI8 does not take bets and is not a bookmaker; it publishes the research and the numbers.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It does not tell you the result. A 50.9% chance loses about half the time. Our figures come from the model and research as of 10 November, before Thursday's games, before any Sunday line-up and before the prices moved. The bookmaker prices are a snapshot from one morning. Team news here is as reported by HNS, the Czech federation's press conference and Czech media up to 9 November, and Croatian reports may have changed since. We did not use expected goals because comparable figures for every match were not available.