Friday's Desk results: five from six

Six BAI8 calls settled from Friday 16 October: five won, one lost. Frosinone, Toulouse, Wolves, Eintracht Frankfurt and Çorum FK landed. Deportivo La Coruña did not, held 1–1 at home by Levante. Both calls with a positive edge won. Every number below comes from the public record, the miss included.

Every call, settled

Fixture	Our pick	Our chance	Price seen	Edge	Score	Result
Frosinone v Sassuolo	Frosinone	41.1%	2.64, Betfair	+3.2 pts	4–2	Won
Le Mans v Toulouse	Toulouse	42.6%	2.42, Smarkets	+1.3 pts	0–3	Won
Çorum FK v Çaykur Rizespor	Çorum FK	47.6%	2.10, Coral	0.0 pts	2–1	Won
Burnley v Wolves	Wolves	40.6%	2.46, Betfair	−0.1 pts	1–2	Won
Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln	Frankfurt	47.4%	2.00, Betfred	−2.6 pts	1–0	Won
Deportivo La Coruña v Levante	Deportivo	41.8%	2.17, 1xBet	−4.2 pts	1–1	Lost

What went right and what did not

Deportivo were the miss, and the market agreed with the miss. Our 41.8% sat below the 2.17 price, a negative edge, so the market was more confident in Deportivo than we were. Bil Nsongo put them ahead on 62 minutes and Dani Requena equalised on 81, per Levante's own report. A draw settles a match-result pick as a loss.

Frosinone were the widest gap and the cleanest win. Antonio Raimondo scored a hat-trick in a 4–2 win, per Gazzetta.it, though two of his goals came from goalkeeper errors. We wrote it up in Frosinone v Sassuolo prediction and odds.

Three late winners. Wolves came from behind at Burnley through Tawanda Chirewa on 72 minutes, Younes Ebnoutalib scored Frankfurt's only goal on 77, and Youssoufa Moukoko won it for Çorum on 80. Toulouse were the one comfortable win, three second-half goals at Le Mans per Eurosport.

The day in numbers

	Calls	Won	Expected wins (sum of our chances)
All six	6	5	2.6
Positive edge	2	2	0.8

Five wins against 2.6 expected is a good day, and a lucky one. Three of the five turned on goals after 70 minutes. The record now stands at 117 settled calls, 75 won and 42 lost, +9.46 units. Why one day of this should not change your mind about anything is in how many bets before a record means anything.

What this does not tell you

It does not tell you what you would have made: prices moved after these quotes. It does not grade the research, because six results are noise whichever way they fall. Four of the six calls had a zero or negative edge, which means the market priced them at least as well as we did. The full record is at the BAI8 record.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.