Sunday's 24 calls, and five edges that all won

BAI8 settled 24 calls from Sunday 18 October: 16 won, 8 lost. All five of our positive-edge calls won, and at the quoted prices one unit on each of the 24 came to +7.25 units. That is a much better day than our own chances predicted, and the honest reading is that a good part of it was luck. Every call is below, the misses included.

Every call, settled

Sorted from the widest positive edge to the most negative.

Fixture	Our pick	Our chance	Price seen	Edge	Result
Paris FC v Rennes	Paris FC	49.8%	2.38, Betfair	+7.8 pts	Won
Angers v Marseille	Marseille	52.0%	2.20, 1xBet	+6.5 pts	Won
Osasuna v Racing Santander	Osasuna	54.0%	2.10, Betfair	+6.4 pts	Won
Fiorentina v Como	Como	49.0%	2.16, Betfair	+2.7 pts	Won
Málaga v Real Sociedad	Real Sociedad	45.8%	2.29, 1xBet	+2.1 pts	Won
Le Havre v Auxerre	Le Havre	40.4%	2.42, 1xBet	−0.9 pts	Lost
Udinese v Lecce	Udinese	49.6%	1.95, 1xBet	−1.7 pts	Lost
Leeds United v Manchester United	Leeds	38.9%	2.44, Betfair	−2.0 pts	Lost
Lyon v Nice	Lyon	54.3%	1.73, Betfair	−3.5 pts	Won
AC Milan v Atalanta	Milan	48.2%	1.93, 1xBet	−3.6 pts	Won
Bournemouth v Sunderland	Bournemouth	41.7%	2.16, Betfair	−4.6 pts	Won
Juventus v Lazio	Juventus	51.3%	1.75, Betfair	−5.9 pts	Lost
SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar	AZ	61.1%	1.49, Betfair	−6.0 pts	Lost
Celta Vigo v Alavés	Celta Vigo	38.7%	2.23, Unibet (NL)	−6.1 pts	Won
Gladbach v Hoffenheim	Hoffenheim	41.3%	2.10, Betfair	−6.3 pts	Won
Celtic v Hearts	Celtic	53.0%	1.66, Betfair	−7.2 pts	Won
Lorient v AS Monaco	Monaco	39.5%	2.12, LeoVegas (SE)	−7.7 pts	Lost
Real Madrid v Sevilla	Real Madrid	70.7%	1.27, Betfair	−8.1 pts	Won
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal	Arsenal	50.4%	1.68, Betfair	−9.1 pts	Won
Groningen v Ajax	Ajax	41.6%	1.97, Betfair	−9.2 pts	Won
Bayer Leverkusen v Freiburg	Leverkusen	45.3%	1.76, Betfair	−11.5 pts	Won
NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard	NEC	45.7%	1.69, Betfair	−13.4 pts	Lost
Brighton v Crystal Palace	Brighton	45.4%	1.63, 1xBet	−16.0 pts	Won
Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal	Seattle	45.2%	1.55, 1xBet	−19.3 pts	Lost

What went right and what did not

Every positive-edge call landed. Paris FC beat Rennes 4–3, which we wrote up in Paris FC v Rennes prediction and odds. Marseille, Osasuna, Como and Real Sociedad all won too. These were modest gaps, 2 to 8 points, at prices around 2.1 to 2.4.

The misses were mostly coin flips. Le Havre, Udinese and Leeds were all calls where our chance sat within two points of the price, which is the market and us agreeing. AZ at 1.49 losing at Cambuur and Seattle at 1.55 losing to Montreal were the two short-priced misses; in both, we already rated the favourite lower than the market did.

Bournemouth's win matters for Thursday. They beat Sunderland 2–0 after Kevin Danso's 17th-minute red card, per Sky Sports. Sunderland now travel to Lech Poznań, one of this week's widest cards.

The day in numbers

	Calls	Won	Expected wins (sum of our chances)
All 24	24	16	11.5
Positive edge	5	5	2.5
Zero or negative edge	19	11	9.0

Sixteen wins against 11.5 expected is a day well above our own numbers. Five from five against 2.5 expected is the part people will notice, and it is exactly the part to be most careful with: on Saturday the same group went one from four. Over the two days that is six from nine against about 4.4 expected. Why nine calls tell you very little is in how many bets before a record means anything. The record now stands at 167 settled calls, 105 won and 62 lost, +14.51 units.

What this does not tell you

It does not tell you what you would have made: prices moved after these quotes, and nobody would have backed all 24. It does not grade the research on one day, good or bad. Nineteen of the 24 calls had a zero or negative edge, meaning the market priced them at least as well as we did. Why we publish those anyway is in why BAI8 publishes negative-edge calls. The full record is at the BAI8 record.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.