Four of six positive-edge calls won on 6 November
Four of our six positive-edge calls on 6 November won, including Toulouse, Dijon, Hamburg and Fluminense. Willem and Grenoble lost. Misses included.
On this page
Four of our six positive-edge calls on 6 November won. Fluminense away at Vitória, Toulouse at home to Strasbourg, Dijon at home to Red Star and Hamburger SV at home to Gladbach all landed. Grenoble's call on Reims lost, and our public Zwolle call at Willem II lost to a 1–1 draw. Expected wins from those six chances were about 2.9; actual wins were four.
The six positive-edge calls
| Match | Our call | Our chance | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória v Fluminense | Fluminense | 39.1% | 2.62, Matchbook | +0.9 pts | Won |
| Toulouse v Strasbourg | Toulouse | 50.4% | 2.10, Betfair | +2.8 pts | Won |
| Dijon v Red Star | Dijon | 39.2% | 2.64, Matchbook | +1.3 pts | Won |
| Hamburg v Gladbach | Hamburg | 43.2% | 2.53, 1xBet | +3.7 pts | Won |
| Grenoble v Reims | Reims | 55.4% | 1.96, Betfair | +4.4 pts | Lost |
| Willem II v Zwolle | Zwolle | 51.8% | 2.32, Unibet (NL) | +8.7 pts | Lost (1–1) |
Prices and chances are from the Desk record as settled. Edge is our chance minus the chance the price implied. The Willem miss has its own settle note on Willem II v PEC Zwolle.
What the maths said
Add the six chances and you get about 2.9 expected wins. Getting four is a good draw, not a miracle and not a proof. Getting two would also have been normal. That is why we publish the misses next to the wins, and why one day never closes the argument. For the sample size that does, read how many bets before a record means anything.
Yesterday's wipeout on 5 November (eight positive-edge losses) sits next to today's four-from-six. Both belong on the same record.
The rest of 6 November
Thirteen fixtures from 6 November appear on the settled record page this morning, including negative-edge wins such as Everton, Derby County and Leicester in the FA Cup. Those are listed on the Desk; this page sticks to the positive-edge group because that is the band readers track against the what a positive edge actually means pitch.
As of this morning the all-time record sits at 498 settled, 285 won, 207 lost, 6 returned, about +28.3 units.
What this does not tell you
It does not reprice any of those fixtures after the fact. It does not say Saturday's public cards will win. It is a settlement note for one day.
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Common questions
How did BAI8's positive-edge calls do on 6 November?
Four of six won. Fluminense, Toulouse, Dijon and Hamburg landed; Grenoble (Reims) and Willem II (Zwolle) lost.
Did Willem II v PEC Zwolle land?
No. We backed Zwolle at 51.8% and the match finished 1–1. The settled preview is on the Willem page.
What is the all-time record this morning?
498 settled, 285 won, 207 lost, 6 returned, about +28.3 units on the Desk record.
Does one good day prove the model?
No. Four from six is a fine draw from those chances, not proof. The record only means something over many bets.