Genclerbirligi v Amedspor prediction and odds
Süper Lig leaders Amedspor visit Gençlerbirliği on Saturday. Our chance for each result, the fair odds, and why 2.67 on Amed was 3.1 points long.
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We have the Süper Lig leaders as slight favourites away from home: Amedspor 40.6%, Gençlerbirliği 32.5%, the draw 26.9%. The best price we saw on an Amed win was 2.67 at 1xBet, where our fair price is 2.46. That is a gap of 3.1 points. It is our estimate of a chance, not a forecast that Amed will win.
The match is Saturday 10 October at 10:30 UTC (13:30 in Turkey) at the Eryaman Stadium in Ankara.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Gençlerbirliği | 32.5% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 26.9% | 3.72 |
| Amedspor | 40.6% | 2.46 |
The 2.67 on Amed was quoted at 1xBet at 23:32 UTC on 4 October, which implies a 37.5% chance. Our assessment was published at 01:31 UTC on 8 October, more recent than the price. If the market has moved since, the gap has moved with it. How to read a BAI8 price that is days old explains how to redo it.
What the public evidence says
The research behind the number is on the full card. These are the public facts around it, from the Turkish local press.
- Top against bottom half. Mücadele Gazetesi has Amedspor top on 13 points and Gençlerbirliği 13th on seven going into the round.
- The home side are short. The same paper reports Adama Traore, Oğulcan Ülgün, Kevin Rodrigues and Tidian Niasse all out injured for this one.
- Amed may get two players back. Gökhan Gül (a calf injury from 13 September) and Yira Sor (hurt against Trabzonspor, first expected to miss about six weeks) are both back in training. Whether either makes the squad is a late decision.
Why only 40.6% for the leaders? Away from home, early in a season, against a side with something to prove, three outcomes stay live. A table after a handful of games flatters some teams and punishes others, which is what variance does to a good bet in another form.
What could make us wrong
The draw is a real result here at 26.9%, and Gençlerbirliği win a third of the time on our own numbers. If Amed's strong start is more luck than we have allowed for, our number is too high. Late squad news on Gül and Sor matters in the other direction.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Amedspor will win: on our numbers they do not, about six times in ten. It does not tell you 2.67 is still on offer, since it was quoted on 4 October. And Turkish league markets usually trade less money than the big European leagues, so a price can move more on less news.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What are BAI8's chances for Gençlerbirliği v Amedspor?
Amedspor 40.6%, Gençlerbirliği 32.5% and the draw 26.9%. Our fair prices are 2.46 for Amed, 3.08 for the home win and 3.72 for the draw.
What is the best price BAI8 saw on Amedspor?
2.67 at 1xBet, quoted at 23:32 UTC on 4 October. That implies 37.5%, against our 40.6%, a gap of 3.1 points.
Who is missing for Gençlerbirliği against Amedspor?
Local reports name four players out injured for Gençlerbirliği: Adama Traore, Oğulcan Ülgün, Kevin Rodrigues and Tidian Niasse.