Samsunspor v Amed SK prediction and odds
We make Amed SK 58.1% away at Samsunspor, fair price 1.72, and saw 2.33 at betPARX: a 15.2 point edge. Our chances, both injury lists and the risks.
We make Amed SK clear favourites at Samsunspor: Amed 58.1%, draw 22.4%, Samsunspor 19.5%. The best price we saw on Amed was 2.33 at betPARX, against our fair price of 1.72. That is a 15.2 point positive edge. At 2.33 the bookmaker gives Amed about 43%, so the market agrees on who should win and disagrees on by how much. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 16:00 UTC on Saturday 24 October (19:00 in Samsun) at the Samsun 19 Mayıs Stadium, matchday 9 of the Süper Lig.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amed SK | 58.1% | 1.72 | 2.33, betPARX | +15.2 pts |
| Draw | 22.4% | 4.46 | ||
| Samsunspor | 19.5% | 5.13 |
The 2.33 was quoted at 04:54 UTC on 20 October, four days before kick-off. A quote that old can move, and how to read one is in how to read a BAI8 price that is days old.
What the research weighs
- The table gap is huge. Sky Sports' table on 19 October has Amed second on 17 points from eight games (18 scored, 9 conceded) and Samsunspor 17th on 4 points (7 scored, 19 conceded). That is 13 points between them after eight rounds.
- Samsunspor cannot score at the moment. TipsQuant counts five straight defeats with two goals scored, the latest a 4–1 loss at Kasımpaşa on 18 October. Starting 11 lists six players out, four of them forwards: Assoumou, Kaya, Tavşan and Øhlenschlæger, plus midfielders Yüksel and Sousa.
- Amed are unbeaten in five. That run includes a 5–0 over Başakşehir, a 3–2 over Beşiktaş and a 1–0 over Konyaspor last weekend. Coach Besnik Hasi told AmedTV on 19 October that Yira Sor is back in training without full medical clearance, and that Dellova is recovering faster than the four weeks first expected.
What could make us wrong
A team in a run like Samsunspor's is priced on the run, and so are we. Form this bad tends to drift back towards average, which is the point of regression to the mean in betting explained. If Samsunspor get even one of their forwards back, 19.5% may be too low. Amed's last trip in this league, 2–2 at Gençlerbirliği on 10 October, shows they do not win every away game they are expected to. We previewed that one in Gençlerbirliği v Amedspor prediction and odds.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Amed will win; on our own numbers they fail to win about four times in ten. It covers the match-result market only, and the best price came from one bookmaker four days out. The Süper Lig is followed by fewer sources than the big five leagues, so our research has less to grade here. Team sheets arrive about an hour before kick-off.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour for Samsunspor v Amed SK?
Amed SK, clearly. We give Amed 58.1%, the draw 22.4% and Samsunspor 19.5%.
Are Amed SK good value at Samsunspor?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw. Best quote 2.33 at betPARX against our fair 1.72 is a 15.2 point edge. It is an estimate, not a promise.
When is Samsunspor v Amed SK?
Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC (19:00 in Samsun), at the Samsun 19 Mayıs Stadium, matchday 9 of the Süper Lig.
Who is injured for Samsunspor v Amed SK?
Starting 11 lists six Samsunspor players out, four of them forwards. Amed coach Besnik Hasi said Yira Sor is back in training but not yet cleared, and Dellova's recovery is ahead of schedule but not finished.