Gimnasia vs Rivadavia prediction, odds and team news
We make Gimnasia Mendoza 48.5% in the Mendoza derby, fair price 2.06, and saw 3.85 at Kalshi: a 22.5 point edge. Form, absences and risks.
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How it settled
Gimnasia Mendoza 1–1 Independiente Rivadavia. Our call was Gimnasia to win at 48.5%, fair price 2.06, best price 3.23 at Kalshi on the settled record. The call lost. The Desk settled it at 00:12 UTC on 8 November as a positive-edge miss (+17.5 pts).
Germán Guiffrey scored for Gimnasia on the stroke of half-time and Luis Díaz equalised deep in stoppage time, per La Nación. The research had the home side right for most of the night; a derby draw in the last minute is exactly the kind of outcome a 48.5% chance leaves room for.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Our call before the match
Written on 7 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.
We back Gimnasia Mendoza at home against Independiente Rivadavia in the Mendoza derby. Our numbers give Gimnasia 48.5%, the draw 28.5% and Rivadavia 23.0%. The call comes from the price: the best we saw for Gimnasia was 3.85 at Kalshi, against our fair 2.06, a 22.5 point positive edge. That is the widest public edge on the Desk this morning. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 18:00 UTC on Saturday 7 November at the Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie, Clausura round 16. More Argentina Primera División predictions.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 48.5% | 2.06 | 3.85, Kalshi | +22.5 pts |
| Draw | 28.5% | 3.50 | ||
| Independiente Rivadavia | 23.0% | 4.35 |
The Desk published this card at 08:11 UTC on 6 November. The 3.85 was quoted at 05:03 UTC on 7 November. Fair price is 1 / 0.4848, about 2.06. A price of 3.85 implies 26.0%, so the edge is 48.5% minus 26.0%, about 22.5 points. The three chances add up to 100%.
A home chance near 49% in a provincial derby is our way of saying the market has leaned too far toward the visitors. For what an edge of this size means over many bets, read what a positive edge actually means.
Form into the derby
Gimnasia Mendoza drew 1–1 with Lanús in their last outing and are fighting for a playoff path in the Clausura, per TyC Sports. Agustín Módica leads their scoring charts with about 10 goals this Clausura, per ZeroZero. Captain Diego Mondino carries four yellows; one more would risk a ban for a possible next round.
Independiente Rivadavia beat Banfield 3–1 last time out and sit in the Libertadores conversation if they keep collecting points, per TyC Sports. Álex Arce has about 7 Clausura goals. Head to head favours Rivadavia overall (5 wins to 3 in eight meetings, per ZeroZero), though Gimnasia have been stronger at the Legrotaglie (3 wins in 5).
Team news
Gimnasia Mendoza:
- Diego Mondino is doubtful with an adductor issue and may sit; Lautaro Carrera is the likely cover, per Diario Mendoza.
- Tomás O'Connor and Ezequiel Muñoz are available again after recent knocks, per TyC Sports and Diario Uno.
Independiente Rivadavia:
- Leonard Costa is out with a strain picked up against Banfield.
- Luciano Gómez and Maxi Salas remain out with ACL injuries.
- Sheyko Studer returns to the squad after a tear and could start next to Iván Villalba, per Diario Mendoza.
What could make us wrong
Derbies compress form. Rivadavia won the reverse fixture heavily earlier in the year (5–1 in some reports of the last meeting, per ZeroZero) and arrive on a win. A 48.5% home chance still loses more than half the time. Absences on both sides can swing a tight match either way. Live numbers for this fixture sit on Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia.
What this does not tell you
It covers the match result only, not goals, handicaps or player markets. Our chance was set when the card published and does not move for later team news. It is not a promise that Gimnasia win.
Get our call on this match
Thirteen passes of research before the start: who to back, the price worth taking and why.
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Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour in Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Gimnasia Mendoza at home. We give them 48.5%, the draw 28.5% and Independiente Rivadavia 23.0%.
Is Gimnasia Mendoza a value bet against Rivadavia?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw: 3.85 at Kalshi at 05:03 UTC on 7 November against our fair 2.06, a 22.5 point edge. A 48.5% chance still fails more than half the time.
When is Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 18:00 UTC at the Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie, Clausura round 16, the Mendoza derby.
Who is missing for Gimnasia and Rivadavia?
Rivadavia miss Leonard Costa (strain), plus Luciano Gómez and Maxi Salas (ACL). Gimnasia have Diego Mondino doubtful with an adductor issue; Tomás O'Connor and Ezequiel Muñoz are available again, per Diario Mendoza and TyC Sports.