Hoffenheim v Lyon prediction and odds
We make Lyon 42.8% away at Hoffenheim, fair price 2.34, and saw 3.5 at Caesars: a 14.2 point edge. Our chances, both injury lists and what could go wrong.
We make Lyon favourites at Hoffenheim: Lyon 42.8%, Hoffenheim 32.7%, draw 24.5%. The best price we saw on Lyon was 3.5 at Caesars, against our fair price of 2.34. That is a 14.2 point positive edge. At 3.5 the bookmaker gives Lyon about 29%, so we think the away side is being underrated by a fair margin. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 19:00 UTC on Thursday 22 October at the SNP Arena in Sinsheim, matchday 3 of the Europa League league phase.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 42.8% | 2.34 | 3.50, Caesars | +14.2 pts |
| Draw | 24.5% | 4.08 | ||
| Hoffenheim | 32.7% | 3.06 |
The card went up at 01:30 UTC on 19 October, with the 3.5 quoted at 01:08 UTC, three and a half days before kick-off.
What the research weighs
- Lyon have the better start in Europe. Lineups Today has Lyon 8th on the Europa League table with six points from two games and Hoffenheim 30th with none.
- Hoffenheim are short at the back. Albian Hajdari (muscle) and Patrick Wimmer (thigh) are out and Bernardo is suspended after a red card, per Starting11 and Lineups Today. FotMob also lists Nathan De Cat out with a meniscus injury.
- Both sides won on Sunday. Lyon beat Nice and Hoffenheim won at Mönchengladbach, both results on our record, so neither arrives on a slump.
What could make us wrong
Lyon's list is longer than Hoffenheim's. Loïs Openda (leg), Nicolás Tagliafico (knee) and Mohamed Ouédraogo (knee ligament) are out, Starting11 adds Moussa Niakhaté (muscle), and Corentin Tolisso is doubtful. Starting11 also notes Lyon have kept only 64% of their starting eleven over six games and play again in Ligue 1 three days later, so rotation is likely. If Lyon's coach rests players, our number is too high. The three previous meetings between these clubs were all draws, per Starting11.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Lyon will win; on our numbers they fail to win more than half the time. It covers the match-result market only, and the 3.5 is one bookmaker's quote at one moment. How we read a card like this is in how we read a Desk card before kick-off. Thursday's wider cards are Lech Poznań v Sunderland and SC Braga v Gent.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour for Hoffenheim v Lyon?
Lyon. We give Lyon 42.8%, Hoffenheim 32.7% and the draw 24.5%.
Are Lyon good value at Hoffenheim?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw. Best quote 3.5 at Caesars against our fair 2.34 is a 14.2 point edge. It is an estimate, not a promise.
When is Hoffenheim v Lyon?
Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC (21:00 in Sinsheim), at the SNP Arena, matchday 3 of the Europa League league phase.
Who is injured for Hoffenheim v Lyon?
Hoffenheim are without Albian Hajdari, Patrick Wimmer and the suspended Bernardo. Lyon are without Loïs Openda, Nicolás Tagliafico, Mohamed Ouédraogo and Moussa Niakhaté, with Corentin Tolisso doubtful.